Bandingkan probabilitas Polymarket dan Kalshi pada kontestasi Senat Montana 2026, beserta odds terkini dan volume 24 jam.
| Kandidat | P Polymarket | K Kalshi | Selisih |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Alme · R | 91.5% | 92.6% | 1.1 pp |
| Independen Di Kalshi tercantum sebagai Seth Bodnar Independen: ditampilkan per platform, tidak dibandingkan | 5.4% | 6.8% | — |
| Alani Bankhead · D | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.2 pp |
Selisih = perbedaan absolut dalam poin persentase. Selisih hanya dihitung jika nama di kedua platform cocok. Opsi placeholder disaring.
Kurt Alme — kandidat terdepan.
| Tanggal (UTC) | Polymarket | Kalshi | Selisih |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | 91.5% | 92.6% | 1.1 pp |
| 2026-10-13 | 91.5% | 92.6% | 1.1 pp |
Rentang 24J: Polymarket 91.5–91.5% · Kalshi 92.6–93.4% · Selisih terbesar 1.9 poin pada 10-12
| Tanggal (UTC) | Polymarket | Kalshi | Selisih |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-06 | 91.5% | 92.9% | 1.4 pp |
| 2026-10-07 | 91.5% | 93.0% | 1.5 pp |
| 2026-10-08 | 91.5% | 93.2% | 1.7 pp |
| 2026-10-09 | 91.5% | 93.0% | 1.5 pp |
| 2026-10-10 | 91.5% | 93.0% | 1.5 pp |
| 2026-10-11 | 91.5% | 92.8% | 1.3 pp |
| 2026-10-12 | 91.5% | 92.6% | 1.1 pp |
| 2026-10-13 | 91.5% | 92.6% | 1.1 pp |
Rentang 7H: Polymarket 91.5–91.5% · Kalshi 92.1–94.0% · Selisih terbesar 2.5 poin pada 10-08
| Tanggal (UTC) | Polymarket | Kalshi | Selisih |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 | 91.5% | 90.9% | 0.6 pp |
| 2026-09-29 | 91.5% | 90.8% | 0.7 pp |
| 2026-09-30 | 91.5% | 91.4% | 0.1 pp |
| 2026-10-01 | 91.5% | 91.6% | 0.1 pp |
| 2026-10-02 | 91.5% | 92.4% | 0.9 pp |
| 2026-10-03 | 91.5% | 91.6% | 0.1 pp |
| 2026-10-04 | 91.5% | 93.2% | 1.7 pp |
| 2026-10-05 | 91.5% | 93.0% | 1.5 pp |
| 2026-10-06 | 91.5% | 92.9% | 1.4 pp |
| 2026-10-07 | 91.5% | 93.0% | 1.5 pp |
| 2026-10-08 | 91.5% | 93.2% | 1.7 pp |
| 2026-10-09 | 91.5% | 93.0% | 1.5 pp |
| 2026-10-10 | 91.5% | 93.0% | 1.5 pp |
| 2026-10-11 | 91.5% | 92.8% | 1.3 pp |
| 2026-10-12 | 91.5% | 92.6% | 1.1 pp |
| 2026-10-13 | 91.5% | 92.6% | 1.1 pp |
Rentang Penuh: Polymarket 91.5–91.5% · Kalshi 90.7–94.2% · Selisih terbesar 2.7 poin pada 10-05
Kedua kontrak mengacu pada hasil Pemilu 2026, tetapi rumusannya berbeda. Ditampilkan berdampingan, tidak digabungkan.
Diselesaikan berdasarkan hasil pemilu: setelah Associated Press, Fox News, dan NBC semuanya menyatakan pemenang yang sama; jika tidak, berdasarkan sertifikasi resmi.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Diselesaikan berdasarkan pelantikan perwakilan partai setelah Pemilu 2026; dapat ditetapkan lebih awal setelah ada konsensus dari organisasi media yang memproyeksikan pemenangnya.
Alani Bankhead: If a representative of the Democratic party is sworn in as a Senator of Montana for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Seth Bodnar: If Seth Bodnar (as an Independent) is sworn in as a Senator of Montana for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Kurt Alme: If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Montana for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. This market will close early following the swearing in of the Senator for the seat in question.
Teks aturan disalin dari data pasar publik masing-masing platform pada 2026-10-05. Hari pemilu adalah 3 Nov 2026; tanggal penutupan platform merupakan placeholder dan tidak ditampilkan. Teks aturan itu sendiri ditampilkan dalam bahasa Inggris asli platform.
Probabilitas adalah harga dari pasar itu sendiri. Untuk Kalshi kami mengambil titik tengah antara bid dan ask terbaik; bila spread lebih lebar dari 8¢, pasar itu tipis, sehingga kami memakai bid terbaik. Untuk Polymarket kami memakai harga yang ditampilkannya sendiri. Sebuah kontestasi ditandai Terverifikasi hanya setelah ada orang yang memastikan pemilu, jabatan, negara bagian, tanggal, dan kandidatnya sama di kedua platform; jika tidak, ditandai Cocok otomatis. Data yang hilang ditampilkan sebagai “—”, bukan 0. Kedua platform merumuskan aturan penyelesaian dengan kata-kata yang berbeda; setiap halaman kontestasi menampilkan kedua teks itu berdampingan. Halaman ini hanya bersifat informasi dan bukan saran taruhan, investasi, atau hukum.
Sumber: API publik Polymarket · API publik Kalshi · kalender pemilu resmi. Metodologi lengkap → · Kalkulator →
PolyKal. “Senat Montana Pemilu 2026: Polymarket vs Kalshi.” Data per 2026-10-13 02:25 UTC. polykal.net/midterms/senate/montana/
Volume Polymarket dalam dolar AS; volume Kalshi dalam kontrak.
Bandingkan probabilitas Polymarket dan Kalshi pada kontestasi Senat Montana 2026, beserta odds terkini dan volume 24 jam.
| Kandidat | P Polymarket | K Kalshi | Selisih |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Alme · R | 91.5% | 92.6% | 1.1 pp |
| Independen Di Kalshi tercantum sebagai Seth Bodnar Independen: ditampilkan per platform, tidak dibandingkan | 5.4% | 6.8% | — |
| Alani Bankhead · D | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.2 pp |
Selisih = perbedaan absolut dalam poin persentase. Selisih hanya dihitung jika nama di kedua platform cocok. Opsi placeholder disaring.
Kurt Alme — kandidat terdepan.
| Tanggal (UTC) | Polymarket | Kalshi | Selisih |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | 91.5% | 92.6% | 1.1 pp |
| 2026-10-13 | 91.5% | 92.6% | 1.1 pp |
Rentang 24J: Polymarket 91.5–91.5% · Kalshi 92.6–93.4% · Selisih terbesar 1.9 poin pada 10-12
| Tanggal (UTC) | Polymarket | Kalshi | Selisih |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-06 | 91.5% | 92.9% | 1.4 pp |
| 2026-10-07 | 91.5% | 93.0% | 1.5 pp |
| 2026-10-08 | 91.5% | 93.2% | 1.7 pp |
| 2026-10-09 | 91.5% | 93.0% | 1.5 pp |
| 2026-10-10 | 91.5% | 93.0% | 1.5 pp |
| 2026-10-11 | 91.5% | 92.8% | 1.3 pp |
| 2026-10-12 | 91.5% | 92.6% | 1.1 pp |
| 2026-10-13 | 91.5% | 92.6% | 1.1 pp |
Rentang 7H: Polymarket 91.5–91.5% · Kalshi 92.1–94.0% · Selisih terbesar 2.5 poin pada 10-08
| Tanggal (UTC) | Polymarket | Kalshi | Selisih |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 | 91.5% | 90.9% | 0.6 pp |
| 2026-09-29 | 91.5% | 90.8% | 0.7 pp |
| 2026-09-30 | 91.5% | 91.4% | 0.1 pp |
| 2026-10-01 | 91.5% | 91.6% | 0.1 pp |
| 2026-10-02 | 91.5% | 92.4% | 0.9 pp |
| 2026-10-03 | 91.5% | 91.6% | 0.1 pp |
| 2026-10-04 | 91.5% | 93.2% | 1.7 pp |
| 2026-10-05 | 91.5% | 93.0% | 1.5 pp |
| 2026-10-06 | 91.5% | 92.9% | 1.4 pp |
| 2026-10-07 | 91.5% | 93.0% | 1.5 pp |
| 2026-10-08 | 91.5% | 93.2% | 1.7 pp |
| 2026-10-09 | 91.5% | 93.0% | 1.5 pp |
| 2026-10-10 | 91.5% | 93.0% | 1.5 pp |
| 2026-10-11 | 91.5% | 92.8% | 1.3 pp |
| 2026-10-12 | 91.5% | 92.6% | 1.1 pp |
| 2026-10-13 | 91.5% | 92.6% | 1.1 pp |
Rentang Penuh: Polymarket 91.5–91.5% · Kalshi 90.7–94.2% · Selisih terbesar 2.7 poin pada 10-05
Kedua kontrak mengacu pada hasil Pemilu 2026, tetapi rumusannya berbeda. Ditampilkan berdampingan, tidak digabungkan.
Diselesaikan berdasarkan hasil pemilu: setelah Associated Press, Fox News, dan NBC semuanya menyatakan pemenang yang sama; jika tidak, berdasarkan sertifikasi resmi.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Diselesaikan berdasarkan pelantikan perwakilan partai setelah Pemilu 2026; dapat ditetapkan lebih awal setelah ada konsensus dari organisasi media yang memproyeksikan pemenangnya.
Alani Bankhead: If a representative of the Democratic party is sworn in as a Senator of Montana for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Seth Bodnar: If Seth Bodnar (as an Independent) is sworn in as a Senator of Montana for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Kurt Alme: If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Montana for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. This market will close early following the swearing in of the Senator for the seat in question.
Teks aturan disalin dari data pasar publik masing-masing platform pada 2026-10-05. Hari pemilu adalah 3 Nov 2026; tanggal penutupan platform merupakan placeholder dan tidak ditampilkan. Teks aturan itu sendiri ditampilkan dalam bahasa Inggris asli platform.
Probabilitas adalah harga dari pasar itu sendiri. Untuk Kalshi kami mengambil titik tengah antara bid dan ask terbaik; bila spread lebih lebar dari 8¢, pasar itu tipis, sehingga kami memakai bid terbaik. Untuk Polymarket kami memakai harga yang ditampilkannya sendiri. Sebuah kontestasi ditandai Terverifikasi hanya setelah ada orang yang memastikan pemilu, jabatan, negara bagian, tanggal, dan kandidatnya sama di kedua platform; jika tidak, ditandai Cocok otomatis. Data yang hilang ditampilkan sebagai “—”, bukan 0. Kedua platform merumuskan aturan penyelesaian dengan kata-kata yang berbeda; setiap halaman kontestasi menampilkan kedua teks itu berdampingan. Halaman ini hanya bersifat informasi dan bukan saran taruhan, investasi, atau hukum.
Sumber: API publik Polymarket · API publik Kalshi · kalender pemilu resmi. Metodologi lengkap → · Kalkulator →
PolyKal. “Senat Montana Pemilu 2026: Polymarket vs Kalshi.” Data per 2026-10-13 02:25 UTC. polykal.net/midterms/senate/montana/
Volume Polymarket dalam dolar AS; volume Kalshi dalam kontrak.