Differenze di mercato tra Polymarket e Kalshi sui midterm 2026

Dove Polymarket e Kalshi divergono di più sulle probabilità delle gare dei midterm 2026, in ordine di ampiezza del divario.

Dati aggiornati al 2026-10-13 02:27 UTC70 gare monitorate32 verificate manualmente

#1 · Senato

3.0 pp

Senato in Michigan

P 70.5% K 67.5% Verificata

#2 · Governatore

3.0 pp

Governatore in Nevada

P 54.5% K 51.5% Verificata

#3 · Governatore

2.1 pp

Governatore in Texas

P 79.4% K 81.5% Verificata

Ordina:

Sfida	Verificata	P Polymarket	K Kalshi	Divario	Variazione 24H	Volume 24H
Senato in Michigan	Verificata	70.5%	67.5%	3.0 pp	P +1.0 · K +0.0	P $34K · K 108K contr.
Governatore in Nevada	Verificata	54.5%	51.5%	3.0 pp	P +1.0 · K +0.0	P $1K · K 4K contr.
Governatore in Texas	Verificata	79.4%	81.5%	2.1 pp	P +0.1 · K +1.0	P $5K · K 104K contr.
Governatore in Alaska	Autoabbinata	78.5%	76.5%	2.0 pp	P +0.0 · K +0.0	P $30 · K 1K contr.
Senato in Alaska	Autoabbinata	72.5%	74.5%	2.0 pp	P +0.0 · K +0.5	P $2K · K 5K contr.
Governatore in Arizona	Verificata	88.5%	86.5%	2.0 pp	P +0.0 · K +0.0	P $13K · K 17K contr.
Governatore in Georgia	Verificata	53.5%	55.5%	2.0 pp	P +0.0 · K +0.0	P $1K · K 11K contr.
Senato in Maine	Verificata	59.5%	57.5%	2.0 pp	P +1.0 · K +1.0	P $2K · K 93K contr.
Senato in Ohio	Verificata	61.5%	59.5%	2.0 pp	P +0.0 · K +0.0	P $13K · K 53K contr.
Governatore in Oregon	Verificata	76.5%	74.5%	2.0 pp	P −1.0 · K −1.0	P $4K · K 9K contr.
Senato in Louisiana	Autoabbinata	92.5%	94.1%	1.6 pp	P +0.0 · K −0.6	P $1 · K 421 contr.
Governatore in Iowa	Verificata	88.0%	89.5%	1.5 pp	P +1.5 · K +2.0	P $17K · K 27K contr.
Senato in Mississippi	Autoabbinata	93.5%	92.0%	1.5 pp	P +0.0 · K +0.1	P $1K · K 3K contr.
Governatore in Connecticut	Autoabbinata	96.7%	95.3%	1.4 pp	P +0.1 · K −0.3	P $67 · K 3K contr.
Senato in Tennessee	Autoabbinata	93.9%	92.6%	1.3 pp	P −0.1 · K +0.1	P $988 · K 22K contr.
Senato in Montana	Verificata	91.5%	92.6%	1.1 pp	P +0.0 · K −0.8	P $416 · K 4K contr.
Governatore in Florida	Verificata	78.5%	77.5%	1.0 pp	P +0.0 · K +0.0	P $4K · K 22K contr.
Governatore in Hawaii	Autoabbinata	99.4%	98.4%	1.0 pp	P +1.0 · K +0.3	P $337 · K 27 contr.
Senato in Idaho	Verificata	95.3%	94.3%	1.0 pp	P +0.1 · K +0.2	P $512 · K 9K contr.
Governatore in Massachusetts	Autoabbinata	95.7%	94.7%	1.0 pp	P −0.1 · K −0.2	P $914 · K 62K contr.
Senato in Minnesota	Verificata	87.5%	86.5%	1.0 pp	P +0.0 · K +0.0	P $1K · K 110K contr.
Senato in Nebraska	Verificata	72.5%	73.5%	1.0 pp	P +1.0 · K +0.5	P $10K · K 29K contr.
Senato in New Hampshire	Verificata	88.5%	89.5%	1.0 pp	P +0.0 · K +0.5	P $2K · K 19K contr.
Governatore in Nuovo Messico	Verificata	90.5%	91.5%	1.0 pp	P +0.0 · K +0.0	P $50 · K 2K contr.
Senato in Carolina del Sud	Verificata	84.5%	85.5%	1.0 pp	P +0.0 · K +0.0	P $1K · K 158K contr.
Governatore in Vermont	Verificata	74.5%	75.5%	1.0 pp	P +0.0 · K +0.0	P $3K · K 3K contr.
Governatore in Michigan	Verificata	93.9%	93.0%	0.9 pp	P +0.0 · K +0.2	P $16 · K 4K contr.
Governatore in Alabama	Autoabbinata	93.4%	92.6%	0.8 pp	P +1.0 · K +1.2	P $12K · K 2K contr.
Senato in Illinois	Autoabbinata	98.3%	97.5%	0.8 pp	P +0.2 · K +0.7	P $2K · K 47 contr.
Senato in Kentucky	Autoabbinata	96.9%	96.1%	0.8 pp	P +0.0 · K +0.2	P $214 · K 314 contr.
Governatore in Minnesota	Verificata	95.5%	94.7%	0.8 pp	P +0.0 · K +0.0	P $6 · K 5K contr.
Governatore in Illinois	Autoabbinata	97.7%	97.0%	0.7 pp	P −1.2 · K −0.3	P $1K · K 5K contr.
Governatore in Rhode Island	Autoabbinata	97.2%	96.5%	0.7 pp	P −0.1 · K −0.3	P — · K 3K contr.
Governatore in Tennessee	Autoabbinata	94.4%	93.7%	0.7 pp	P −0.2 · K +0.0	P $381 · K 15K contr.
Senato in Wyoming	Autoabbinata	98.4%	97.7%	0.7 pp	P +0.0 · K +0.0	P $1 · K —
Governatore in Colorado	Verificata	97.1%	96.5%	0.6 pp	P +0.0 · K −0.4	P $5 · K 2K contr.
Senato in Georgia	Verificata	96.0%	95.4%	0.6 pp	P −0.3 · K +0.0	P $3K · K 13K contr.
Governatore in New York	Autoabbinata	95.7%	95.1%	0.6 pp	P −0.2 · K +0.0	P $10 · K 16K contr.
Senato in Oklahoma	Autoabbinata	97.2%	96.6%	0.6 pp	P −0.1 · K +0.0	P $1 · K —
Senato in Dakota del Sud	Autoabbinata	93.1%	93.7%	0.6 pp	P −0.1 · K −0.2	P $67 · K 656 contr.
Senato in Delaware	Autoabbinata	98.5%	98.0%	0.5 pp	P −0.1 · K −0.1	P $61 · K —
Senato in New Jersey	Autoabbinata	97.4%	96.9%	0.5 pp	P −1.1 · K −1.6	P $106 · K 17K contr.
Senato in Carolina del Nord	Verificata	96.1%	95.6%	0.5 pp	P −0.2 · K +0.4	P $2K · K 42K contr.
Governatore in Pennsylvania	Verificata	97.9%	98.4%	0.5 pp	P +0.5 · K +1.3	P $2K · K 22K contr.
Governatore in Wyoming	Autoabbinata	97.8%	97.3%	0.5 pp	P +0.3 · K +0.1	P — · K 614 contr.
Governatore in Oklahoma	Autoabbinata	92.5%	92.1%	0.4 pp	P +0.0 · K +0.5	P — · K 278 contr.
Governatore in Carolina del Sud	Autoabbinata	94.5%	94.1%	0.4 pp	P +0.0 · K −0.4	P — · K 81 contr.
Governatore in Dakota del Sud	Autoabbinata	98.0%	97.6%	0.4 pp	P +1.2 · K +0.3	P $53 · K —
Senato in Virginia	Autoabbinata	97.8%	97.4%	0.4 pp	P −0.4 · K −0.4	P $6 · K 291 contr.
Senato in Colorado	Autoabbinata	98.1%	98.4%	0.3 pp	P +0.2 · K +0.0	P $6 · K 5 contr.
Senato in Florida	Verificata	90.5%	90.8%	0.3 pp	P +0.0 · K −0.2	P $2K · K 11K contr.
Governatore in Nebraska	Autoabbinata	89.5%	89.8%	0.3 pp	P +0.0 · K −0.7	P — · K 385 contr.
Governatore in Arkansas	Autoabbinata	96.7%	96.5%	0.2 pp	P +0.0 · K +0.0	—
Governatore in Maryland	Autoabbinata	98.1%	97.9%	0.2 pp	P −0.2 · K +0.0	P $5 · K 135 contr.
Senato in Massachusetts	Autoabbinata	98.4%	98.2%	0.2 pp	P −0.1 · K +0.0	P $66 · K 8K contr.
Senato in Oregon	Autoabbinata	98.1%	97.9%	0.2 pp	P +0.0 · K +0.0	P $13 · K —
Senato in Virginia Occidentale	Autoabbinata	97.8%	98.0%	0.2 pp	P −0.7 · K +0.2	P $258 · K 155 contr.
Senato in Alabama	Autoabbinata	97.3%	97.2%	0.1 pp	P −0.5 · K −0.2	P $1 · K 128 contr.
Governatore in California	Autoabbinata	96.1%	96.0%	0.1 pp	P +0.4 · K −0.2	P $11K · K 257K contr.
Governatore in Idaho	Autoabbinata	97.4%	97.3%	0.1 pp	P −0.4 · K −0.2	—
Governatore in New Hampshire	Verificata	94.2%	94.3%	0.1 pp	P −0.1 · K +0.3	—
Senato in Arkansas	Autoabbinata	94.3%	94.3%	0.0 pp	P −0.1 · K +0.1	P $11 · K 3K contr.
Senato in Iowa	Verificata	58.5%	58.5%	0.0 pp	P +0.0 · K +1.0	P $2K · K 70K contr.
Governatore in Kansas	Verificata	74.5%	74.5%	0.0 pp	P +0.0 · K +0.0	P $14 · K 35 contr.
Senato in Kansas	Verificata	62.5%	62.5%	0.0 pp	P +0.5 · K +0.0	P $6K · K 30K contr.
Senato in Nuovo Messico	Autoabbinata	97.4%	97.4%	0.0 pp	P +0.0 · K +0.0	P $1 · K 606 contr.
Governatore in Ohio	Verificata	68.5%	68.5%	0.0 pp	P +1.0 · K −1.0	P $2K · K 59K contr.
Senato in Rhode Island	Autoabbinata	98.1%	98.1%	0.0 pp	P +0.2 · K +0.2	P $1 · K —
Senato in Texas	Verificata	63.5%	63.5%	0.0 pp	P +1.0 · K +1.0	P $113K · K 567K contr.
Governatore in Wisconsin	Verificata	80.5%	80.5%	0.0 pp	P +0.0 · K +0.0	P $2K · K 17K contr.

· La differenza è il valore assoluto dello scarto in punti percentuali. Solo le competizioni verificate manualmente hanno una pagina dedicata. I valori mancanti sono indicati con “—”.

Alcune contese non sono direttamente confrontabili perché le due piattaforme definiscono il contratto in modo diverso (ad esempio, una elenca un candidato indipendente come opzione separata). Sono escluse da questa classifica anziché essere mostrate come un divario.

Metodo, fonti e limiti

Le probabilità sono i prezzi espressi dai mercati stessi. Per Kalshi prendiamo il punto medio tra miglior denaro e miglior lettera; quando lo spread supera gli 8¢ il mercato è poco liquido, quindi usiamo il miglior denaro. Per Polymarket usiamo il prezzo mostrato dalla piattaforma stessa. Una sfida è contrassegnata come Verificata solo dopo che una persona ha confermato che si tratta della stessa elezione, carica, stato, data e candidati su entrambe le piattaforme; in caso contrario è Abbinata automaticamente. I dati mancanti sono indicati con “—”, mai con 0. Le due piattaforme formulano in modo diverso le proprie regole di liquidazione; ogni pagina di sfida mostra entrambi i testi affiancati. Questa pagina ha solo scopo informativo e non costituisce un consiglio di scommessa, di investimento o di natura legale.

Fonti: API pubblica di Polymarket · API pubblica di Kalshi · calendari elettorali ufficiali. Metodologia completa → · Calcolatore →

Come citare questa pagina

PolyKal. “Differenze di mercato tra Polymarket e Kalshi sui midterm 2026.” Dati aggiornati al 2026-10-13 02:27 UTC. polykal.net/midterms/gaps/

Calcolatore commissioni Polymarket e KalshiInserisci numero di contratti e prezzo per vedere la commissione esatta di ogni piattaforma, taker o maker, secondo la formula che pubblica. Apri il calcolatore →

Chi è PolyKal Dove usare Polymarket e Kalshi Classifica Argomenti Privacy Termini

Midterm 2026

Differenze di mercato tra Polymarket e Kalshi sui midterm 2026

Dove Polymarket e Kalshi divergono di più sulle probabilità delle gare dei midterm 2026, in ordine di ampiezza del divario.

Dati aggiornati al 2026-10-13 02:27 UTC70 gare monitorate32 verificate manualmente

#1 · Senato

3.0 pp

Senato in Michigan

P 70.5% K 67.5% Verificata

#2 · Governatore

3.0 pp

Governatore in Nevada

P 54.5% K 51.5% Verificata

#3 · Governatore

2.1 pp

Governatore in Texas

P 79.4% K 81.5% Verificata

Ordina:

Sfida	Verificata	P Polymarket	K Kalshi	Divario	Variazione 24H	Volume 24H
Senato in Michigan	Verificata	70.5%	67.5%	3.0 pp	P +1.0 · K +0.0	P $34K · K 108K contr.
Governatore in Nevada	Verificata	54.5%	51.5%	3.0 pp	P +1.0 · K +0.0	P $1K · K 4K contr.
Governatore in Texas	Verificata	79.4%	81.5%	2.1 pp	P +0.1 · K +1.0	P $5K · K 104K contr.
Governatore in Alaska	Autoabbinata	78.5%	76.5%	2.0 pp	P +0.0 · K +0.0	P $30 · K 1K contr.
Senato in Alaska	Autoabbinata	72.5%	74.5%	2.0 pp	P +0.0 · K +0.5	P $2K · K 5K contr.
Governatore in Arizona	Verificata	88.5%	86.5%	2.0 pp	P +0.0 · K +0.0	P $13K · K 17K contr.
Governatore in Georgia	Verificata	53.5%	55.5%	2.0 pp	P +0.0 · K +0.0	P $1K · K 11K contr.
Senato in Maine	Verificata	59.5%	57.5%	2.0 pp	P +1.0 · K +1.0	P $2K · K 93K contr.
Senato in Ohio	Verificata	61.5%	59.5%	2.0 pp	P +0.0 · K +0.0	P $13K · K 53K contr.
Governatore in Oregon	Verificata	76.5%	74.5%	2.0 pp	P −1.0 · K −1.0	P $4K · K 9K contr.
Senato in Louisiana	Autoabbinata	92.5%	94.1%	1.6 pp	P +0.0 · K −0.6	P $1 · K 421 contr.
Governatore in Iowa	Verificata	88.0%	89.5%	1.5 pp	P +1.5 · K +2.0	P $17K · K 27K contr.
Senato in Mississippi	Autoabbinata	93.5%	92.0%	1.5 pp	P +0.0 · K +0.1	P $1K · K 3K contr.
Governatore in Connecticut	Autoabbinata	96.7%	95.3%	1.4 pp	P +0.1 · K −0.3	P $67 · K 3K contr.
Senato in Tennessee	Autoabbinata	93.9%	92.6%	1.3 pp	P −0.1 · K +0.1	P $988 · K 22K contr.
Senato in Montana	Verificata	91.5%	92.6%	1.1 pp	P +0.0 · K −0.8	P $416 · K 4K contr.
Governatore in Florida	Verificata	78.5%	77.5%	1.0 pp	P +0.0 · K +0.0	P $4K · K 22K contr.
Governatore in Hawaii	Autoabbinata	99.4%	98.4%	1.0 pp	P +1.0 · K +0.3	P $337 · K 27 contr.
Senato in Idaho	Verificata	95.3%	94.3%	1.0 pp	P +0.1 · K +0.2	P $512 · K 9K contr.
Governatore in Massachusetts	Autoabbinata	95.7%	94.7%	1.0 pp	P −0.1 · K −0.2	P $914 · K 62K contr.
Senato in Minnesota	Verificata	87.5%	86.5%	1.0 pp	P +0.0 · K +0.0	P $1K · K 110K contr.
Senato in Nebraska	Verificata	72.5%	73.5%	1.0 pp	P +1.0 · K +0.5	P $10K · K 29K contr.
Senato in New Hampshire	Verificata	88.5%	89.5%	1.0 pp	P +0.0 · K +0.5	P $2K · K 19K contr.
Governatore in Nuovo Messico	Verificata	90.5%	91.5%	1.0 pp	P +0.0 · K +0.0	P $50 · K 2K contr.
Senato in Carolina del Sud	Verificata	84.5%	85.5%	1.0 pp	P +0.0 · K +0.0	P $1K · K 158K contr.
Governatore in Vermont	Verificata	74.5%	75.5%	1.0 pp	P +0.0 · K +0.0	P $3K · K 3K contr.
Governatore in Michigan	Verificata	93.9%	93.0%	0.9 pp	P +0.0 · K +0.2	P $16 · K 4K contr.
Governatore in Alabama	Autoabbinata	93.4%	92.6%	0.8 pp	P +1.0 · K +1.2	P $12K · K 2K contr.
Senato in Illinois	Autoabbinata	98.3%	97.5%	0.8 pp	P +0.2 · K +0.7	P $2K · K 47 contr.
Senato in Kentucky	Autoabbinata	96.9%	96.1%	0.8 pp	P +0.0 · K +0.2	P $214 · K 314 contr.
Governatore in Minnesota	Verificata	95.5%	94.7%	0.8 pp	P +0.0 · K +0.0	P $6 · K 5K contr.
Governatore in Illinois	Autoabbinata	97.7%	97.0%	0.7 pp	P −1.2 · K −0.3	P $1K · K 5K contr.
Governatore in Rhode Island	Autoabbinata	97.2%	96.5%	0.7 pp	P −0.1 · K −0.3	P — · K 3K contr.
Governatore in Tennessee	Autoabbinata	94.4%	93.7%	0.7 pp	P −0.2 · K +0.0	P $381 · K 15K contr.
Senato in Wyoming	Autoabbinata	98.4%	97.7%	0.7 pp	P +0.0 · K +0.0	P $1 · K —
Governatore in Colorado	Verificata	97.1%	96.5%	0.6 pp	P +0.0 · K −0.4	P $5 · K 2K contr.
Senato in Georgia	Verificata	96.0%	95.4%	0.6 pp	P −0.3 · K +0.0	P $3K · K 13K contr.
Governatore in New York	Autoabbinata	95.7%	95.1%	0.6 pp	P −0.2 · K +0.0	P $10 · K 16K contr.
Senato in Oklahoma	Autoabbinata	97.2%	96.6%	0.6 pp	P −0.1 · K +0.0	P $1 · K —
Senato in Dakota del Sud	Autoabbinata	93.1%	93.7%	0.6 pp	P −0.1 · K −0.2	P $67 · K 656 contr.
Senato in Delaware	Autoabbinata	98.5%	98.0%	0.5 pp	P −0.1 · K −0.1	P $61 · K —
Senato in New Jersey	Autoabbinata	97.4%	96.9%	0.5 pp	P −1.1 · K −1.6	P $106 · K 17K contr.
Senato in Carolina del Nord	Verificata	96.1%	95.6%	0.5 pp	P −0.2 · K +0.4	P $2K · K 42K contr.
Governatore in Pennsylvania	Verificata	97.9%	98.4%	0.5 pp	P +0.5 · K +1.3	P $2K · K 22K contr.
Governatore in Wyoming	Autoabbinata	97.8%	97.3%	0.5 pp	P +0.3 · K +0.1	P — · K 614 contr.
Governatore in Oklahoma	Autoabbinata	92.5%	92.1%	0.4 pp	P +0.0 · K +0.5	P — · K 278 contr.
Governatore in Carolina del Sud	Autoabbinata	94.5%	94.1%	0.4 pp	P +0.0 · K −0.4	P — · K 81 contr.
Governatore in Dakota del Sud	Autoabbinata	98.0%	97.6%	0.4 pp	P +1.2 · K +0.3	P $53 · K —
Senato in Virginia	Autoabbinata	97.8%	97.4%	0.4 pp	P −0.4 · K −0.4	P $6 · K 291 contr.
Senato in Colorado	Autoabbinata	98.1%	98.4%	0.3 pp	P +0.2 · K +0.0	P $6 · K 5 contr.
Senato in Florida	Verificata	90.5%	90.8%	0.3 pp	P +0.0 · K −0.2	P $2K · K 11K contr.
Governatore in Nebraska	Autoabbinata	89.5%	89.8%	0.3 pp	P +0.0 · K −0.7	P — · K 385 contr.
Governatore in Arkansas	Autoabbinata	96.7%	96.5%	0.2 pp	P +0.0 · K +0.0	—
Governatore in Maryland	Autoabbinata	98.1%	97.9%	0.2 pp	P −0.2 · K +0.0	P $5 · K 135 contr.
Senato in Massachusetts	Autoabbinata	98.4%	98.2%	0.2 pp	P −0.1 · K +0.0	P $66 · K 8K contr.
Senato in Oregon	Autoabbinata	98.1%	97.9%	0.2 pp	P +0.0 · K +0.0	P $13 · K —
Senato in Virginia Occidentale	Autoabbinata	97.8%	98.0%	0.2 pp	P −0.7 · K +0.2	P $258 · K 155 contr.
Senato in Alabama	Autoabbinata	97.3%	97.2%	0.1 pp	P −0.5 · K −0.2	P $1 · K 128 contr.
Governatore in California	Autoabbinata	96.1%	96.0%	0.1 pp	P +0.4 · K −0.2	P $11K · K 257K contr.
Governatore in Idaho	Autoabbinata	97.4%	97.3%	0.1 pp	P −0.4 · K −0.2	—
Governatore in New Hampshire	Verificata	94.2%	94.3%	0.1 pp	P −0.1 · K +0.3	—
Senato in Arkansas	Autoabbinata	94.3%	94.3%	0.0 pp	P −0.1 · K +0.1	P $11 · K 3K contr.
Senato in Iowa	Verificata	58.5%	58.5%	0.0 pp	P +0.0 · K +1.0	P $2K · K 70K contr.
Governatore in Kansas	Verificata	74.5%	74.5%	0.0 pp	P +0.0 · K +0.0	P $14 · K 35 contr.
Senato in Kansas	Verificata	62.5%	62.5%	0.0 pp	P +0.5 · K +0.0	P $6K · K 30K contr.
Senato in Nuovo Messico	Autoabbinata	97.4%	97.4%	0.0 pp	P +0.0 · K +0.0	P $1 · K 606 contr.
Governatore in Ohio	Verificata	68.5%	68.5%	0.0 pp	P +1.0 · K −1.0	P $2K · K 59K contr.
Senato in Rhode Island	Autoabbinata	98.1%	98.1%	0.0 pp	P +0.2 · K +0.2	P $1 · K —
Senato in Texas	Verificata	63.5%	63.5%	0.0 pp	P +1.0 · K +1.0	P $113K · K 567K contr.
Governatore in Wisconsin	Verificata	80.5%	80.5%	0.0 pp	P +0.0 · K +0.0	P $2K · K 17K contr.

· La differenza è il valore assoluto dello scarto in punti percentuali. Solo le competizioni verificate manualmente hanno una pagina dedicata. I valori mancanti sono indicati con “—”.

Metodo, fonti e limiti

Fonti: API pubblica di Polymarket · API pubblica di Kalshi · calendari elettorali ufficiali. Metodologia completa → · Calcolatore →

Come citare questa pagina

PolyKal. “Differenze di mercato tra Polymarket e Kalshi sui midterm 2026.” Dati aggiornati al 2026-10-13 02:27 UTC. polykal.net/midterms/gaps/

Calcolatore commissioni Polymarket e KalshiInserisci numero di contratti e prezzo per vedere la commissione esatta di ogni piattaforma, taker o maker, secondo la formula che pubblica.

Home Confronta Argomenti Calcolatore