对比 Polymarket 与 Kalshi 在 2026 年 新罕布什尔州州长选举 上的概率，附当前赔率与 24 小时成交量。
| 候选人 | P Polymarket | K Kalshi | 差距 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly Ayotte · R | 94.2% | 94.3% | 0.1 个百分点 |
| Cinde Warmington · D | 5.8% | 5.5% | 0.3 个百分点 |
差距 = 百分点之差的绝对值。只有两个平台的名称能对上时才计算差距。占位选项已被过滤掉。
Kelly Ayotte — 领先候选人。
| 日期(UTC) | Polymarket | Kalshi | 差距 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | 94.2% | 94.3% | 0.1 个百分点 |
| 2026-10-13 | 94.2% | 94.3% | 0.1 个百分点 |
24 小时 区间：Polymarket 94.2–94.5% · Kalshi 94.0–94.4% · 最大差距 0.4 个百分点，出现在 10-12
| 日期(UTC) | Polymarket | Kalshi | 差距 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-06 | 93.1% | 92.5% | 0.6 个百分点 |
| 2026-10-07 | 93.1% | 93.0% | 0.1 个百分点 |
| 2026-10-08 | 94.5% | 93.4% | 1.1 个百分点 |
| 2026-10-09 | 94.6% | 93.2% | 1.4 个百分点 |
| 2026-10-10 | 94.2% | 93.7% | 0.5 个百分点 |
| 2026-10-11 | 94.1% | 94.0% | 0.1 个百分点 |
| 2026-10-12 | 94.2% | 94.3% | 0.1 个百分点 |
| 2026-10-13 | 94.2% | 94.3% | 0.1 个百分点 |
7 天 区间：Polymarket 93.1–95.5% · Kalshi 91.8–94.4% · 最大差距 2.8 个百分点，出现在 10-06
| 日期(UTC) | Polymarket | Kalshi | 差距 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 | 93.5% | 91.9% | 1.6 个百分点 |
| 2026-09-29 | 96.2% | 92.6% | 3.6 个百分点 |
| 2026-09-30 | 95.9% | 92.4% | 3.5 个百分点 |
| 2026-10-01 | 95.9% | 92.1% | 3.8 个百分点 |
| 2026-10-02 | 96.0% | 93.4% | 2.6 个百分点 |
| 2026-10-03 | 96.0% | 93.0% | 3.0 个百分点 |
| 2026-10-04 | 95.4% | 92.7% | 2.7 个百分点 |
| 2026-10-05 | 95.4% | 92.6% | 2.8 个百分点 |
| 2026-10-06 | 93.1% | 92.5% | 0.6 个百分点 |
| 2026-10-07 | 93.1% | 93.0% | 0.1 个百分点 |
| 2026-10-08 | 94.5% | 93.4% | 1.1 个百分点 |
| 2026-10-09 | 94.6% | 93.2% | 1.4 个百分点 |
| 2026-10-10 | 94.2% | 93.7% | 0.5 个百分点 |
| 2026-10-11 | 94.1% | 94.0% | 0.1 个百分点 |
| 2026-10-12 | 94.2% | 94.3% | 0.1 个百分点 |
| 2026-10-13 | 94.2% | 94.3% | 0.1 个百分点 |
全部 区间：Polymarket 93.1–96.8% · Kalshi 91.7–94.4% · 最大差距 4.1 个百分点，出现在 09-29
两个合约都指向 2026 年选举结果，但措辞不同。此处并排展示，不做合并。
按选举结果结算：需美联社、福克斯新闻和 NBC 三方都宣布同一名胜选者；否则按官方认证结果结算。
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 New Hampshire gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
按该党代表在 2026 年选举后宣誓就职结算；若主流媒体机构一致预测出胜选者，也可能提前确定。
If a representative of the Democratic party is inaugurated as the governor of New Hampshire pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. This market will close early following the first person to be sworn in as governor pursuant to the 2026 gubernatorial election.
规则原文摘自各平台 2026-10-03 的公开市场数据。选举日为 2026 年 11 月 3 日；平台的关闭日期为占位值，不予展示。 规则原文按各平台的英文原样展示。
概率即市场自身的价格。对于 Kalshi，我们取最优买价与卖价的中间价；当买卖价差大于 8¢ 时，说明市场流动性不足，此时改用最优买价。对于 Polymarket，我们采用平台自身展示的价格。只有经人工确认两平台对应的是同一场选举、同一职位、同一州、同一日期和同一批候选人后，该场选举才会标记为 已核验；否则标记为 自动配对。缺失数据以“—”表示，绝不显示为 0。两个平台对结算规则的表述不同；每场选举页面都会并排展示双方原文。本页仅供参考，不构成投注、投资或法律建议。
来源：Polymarket 公共 API · Kalshi 公共 API · 官方选举日历。 完整方法论 → · 手续费计算器 →
PolyKal. “新罕布什尔州州长选举 2026 年选举：Polymarket vs Kalshi.” 数据截至 2026-10-13 02:26 UTC。polykal.net/midterms/governor/new-hampshire/
Polymarket 的成交量以美元计；Kalshi 的成交量以合约张数计。
对比 Polymarket 与 Kalshi 在 2026 年 新罕布什尔州州长选举 上的概率，附当前赔率与 24 小时成交量。
| 候选人 | P Polymarket | K Kalshi | 差距 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly Ayotte · R | 94.2% | 94.3% | 0.1 个百分点 |
| Cinde Warmington · D | 5.8% | 5.5% | 0.3 个百分点 |
差距 = 百分点之差的绝对值。只有两个平台的名称能对上时才计算差距。占位选项已被过滤掉。
Kelly Ayotte — 领先候选人。
| 日期(UTC) | Polymarket | Kalshi | 差距 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | 94.2% | 94.3% | 0.1 个百分点 |
| 2026-10-13 | 94.2% | 94.3% | 0.1 个百分点 |
24 小时 区间：Polymarket 94.2–94.5% · Kalshi 94.0–94.4% · 最大差距 0.4 个百分点，出现在 10-12
| 日期(UTC) | Polymarket | Kalshi | 差距 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-06 | 93.1% | 92.5% | 0.6 个百分点 |
| 2026-10-07 | 93.1% | 93.0% | 0.1 个百分点 |
| 2026-10-08 | 94.5% | 93.4% | 1.1 个百分点 |
| 2026-10-09 | 94.6% | 93.2% | 1.4 个百分点 |
| 2026-10-10 | 94.2% | 93.7% | 0.5 个百分点 |
| 2026-10-11 | 94.1% | 94.0% | 0.1 个百分点 |
| 2026-10-12 | 94.2% | 94.3% | 0.1 个百分点 |
| 2026-10-13 | 94.2% | 94.3% | 0.1 个百分点 |
7 天 区间：Polymarket 93.1–95.5% · Kalshi 91.8–94.4% · 最大差距 2.8 个百分点，出现在 10-06
| 日期(UTC) | Polymarket | Kalshi | 差距 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 | 93.5% | 91.9% | 1.6 个百分点 |
| 2026-09-29 | 96.2% | 92.6% | 3.6 个百分点 |
| 2026-09-30 | 95.9% | 92.4% | 3.5 个百分点 |
| 2026-10-01 | 95.9% | 92.1% | 3.8 个百分点 |
| 2026-10-02 | 96.0% | 93.4% | 2.6 个百分点 |
| 2026-10-03 | 96.0% | 93.0% | 3.0 个百分点 |
| 2026-10-04 | 95.4% | 92.7% | 2.7 个百分点 |
| 2026-10-05 | 95.4% | 92.6% | 2.8 个百分点 |
| 2026-10-06 | 93.1% | 92.5% | 0.6 个百分点 |
| 2026-10-07 | 93.1% | 93.0% | 0.1 个百分点 |
| 2026-10-08 | 94.5% | 93.4% | 1.1 个百分点 |
| 2026-10-09 | 94.6% | 93.2% | 1.4 个百分点 |
| 2026-10-10 | 94.2% | 93.7% | 0.5 个百分点 |
| 2026-10-11 | 94.1% | 94.0% | 0.1 个百分点 |
| 2026-10-12 | 94.2% | 94.3% | 0.1 个百分点 |
| 2026-10-13 | 94.2% | 94.3% | 0.1 个百分点 |
全部 区间：Polymarket 93.1–96.8% · Kalshi 91.7–94.4% · 最大差距 4.1 个百分点，出现在 09-29
两个合约都指向 2026 年选举结果，但措辞不同。此处并排展示，不做合并。
按选举结果结算：需美联社、福克斯新闻和 NBC 三方都宣布同一名胜选者；否则按官方认证结果结算。
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 New Hampshire gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
按该党代表在 2026 年选举后宣誓就职结算；若主流媒体机构一致预测出胜选者，也可能提前确定。
If a representative of the Democratic party is inaugurated as the governor of New Hampshire pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. This market will close early following the first person to be sworn in as governor pursuant to the 2026 gubernatorial election.
规则原文摘自各平台 2026-10-03 的公开市场数据。选举日为 2026 年 11 月 3 日；平台的关闭日期为占位值，不予展示。 规则原文按各平台的英文原样展示。
概率即市场自身的价格。对于 Kalshi，我们取最优买价与卖价的中间价；当买卖价差大于 8¢ 时，说明市场流动性不足，此时改用最优买价。对于 Polymarket，我们采用平台自身展示的价格。只有经人工确认两平台对应的是同一场选举、同一职位、同一州、同一日期和同一批候选人后，该场选举才会标记为 已核验；否则标记为 自动配对。缺失数据以“—”表示，绝不显示为 0。两个平台对结算规则的表述不同；每场选举页面都会并排展示双方原文。本页仅供参考，不构成投注、投资或法律建议。
来源：Polymarket 公共 API · Kalshi 公共 API · 官方选举日历。 完整方法论 → · 手续费计算器 →
PolyKal. “新罕布什尔州州长选举 2026 年选举：Polymarket vs Kalshi.” 数据截至 2026-10-13 02:26 UTC。polykal.net/midterms/governor/new-hampshire/
Polymarket 的成交量以美元计；Kalshi 的成交量以合约张数计。