Polymarket 与 Kalshi 如何为 2026 年美国众议院控制权定价：价格、费用与结算规则并列对比。仅呈现数据，不构成交易建议。
PolyKal Research · 发布于 2026 年 10 月 5 日 · 数据截至 2026-10-12 22:28 ET · 独立研究，与 Polymarket、Kalshi 均无关联。非投资建议。 · 译自英文原文 · 已自动核对
截至 2026 年 10 月 12 日，Polymarket 上，众议院控制权归属最可能的结果是“民主党”，概率 90.5%。
费后来看，Polymarket 在“共和党”上更便宜。
市场目前的判断是“民主党”，概率 90.5%；哪个平台费后更便宜要看具体结果（见上表）。要跟踪 11 月 3 日众议院控制权归属落定，人们通常会关注 全国普选民调与众议院整体普选票。本页只帮你看懂盘面、比较成本，不替你决定押哪边。
价格口径与中期选举各页面一致：Polymarket 显示该市场展示的 Yes 价格。当最优 Yes 买价与最优 Yes 卖价相差不超过 8¢ 时，Kalshi 显示两者的中间价，否则显示最优 Yes 买价。没有 Yes 买价的结果显示 —。
两个市场问的都是 2026 年中期选举后哪个政党控制美国众议院，但两家平台的规则措辞并不相同。以下规则原文摘自各自平台，保留英文原样。
按在 2026 年选举中赢得众议院控制权的政党结算——即拿下该院过半数投票席位者；若没有政党取得多数，则以首位当选议长所属政党为准。
以下为平台官方规则原文的逐字引用：
This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States House of Representatives in the 2026 United States midterm election. A party wins control of the United States House of Representatives if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first elected Speaker of the House of the Congress that convenes after the 2026 midterm election is affiliated. The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chamber. All House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress are included. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
按指定政党是否赢得 2026 年众议院控制权结算；其规则允许依据媒体判定共识提前确定，否则以众议院议长所属政党为准。
以下为平台官方规则原文的逐字引用：
Democratic Party: If the Democratic Party has won control of the House in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Republican Party: If the Republican Party has won control of the House in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. This market may be determined early based on a consensus of media calls projecting control of the U.S. House. See full rules for details. Otherwise, victory will be determined by the party identification of the Speaker of the House on February 1, 2027.
规则原文已于 2026-10-05 对照各平台自有页面核对，并以英文原文展示。
它是以一个问题为标的的市场：2026 年中期选举后，哪个政党将控制美国众议院。Polymarket 和 Kalshi 各自挂出民主党与共和党两份合约，每份合约的价格即被读作该结果的发生概率。PolyKal 把两个平台并排展示。
两者的措辞不同。Polymarket 按选举中赢得众议院控制权的政党结算，以过半数投票席位为准；若没有多数，则以首位当选议长所属政党为准。Kalshi 按该党是否赢得 2026 年众议院控制权结算，可以依据媒体判定共识提前确定，否则以议长所属政党为准。上方的结算规则区块展示了各平台的原文。
每个平台都有自己的交易者、订单簿、费用和规则措辞，价格抓取时点也略有先后。PolyKal 还采用明确的取价口径：Polymarket 用其显示价格；Kalshi 在买卖价差不超过 8 美分时取买卖中间价，否则取最高买价。出现小幅差异属正常，页面以百分点呈现，并不作为信号。
本页数据约每 15 分钟从各平台的公开数据刷新一次，页面上的“Data as of”时间显示的是数据抓取时点。这是一份快照，不是实时数据流。
两个问题的答案都是否定的。PolyKal 是一个免费、只读的研究网站：没有账户，也没有交易功能，本站任何内容都不构成建议。它不公布选举结果，只展示这两个市场当时的定价情况；投票结束后，本页面就会停止更新，并显示投票结束前的最后价格。
两个平台的价格取自官方公开订单簿。时间统一为 ET。
扣除费用后的成本使用费率表中当前、带日期的 taker 费率。如果某个结果只在一个平台上交易，我们会显示“不可比”，而不是留空。
PolyKal Research. “2026 众议院控制权：Polymarket 与 Kalshi 怎么比.” PolyKal Research, 2026 年 10 月 5 日. https://polykal.net/zh-Hans/topics/house-control-2026/（访问日期：你查看本页的日期）。
Polymarket 与 Kalshi 如何为 2026 年美国众议院控制权定价：价格、费用与结算规则并列对比。仅呈现数据，不构成交易建议。
PolyKal Research · 发布于 2026 年 10 月 5 日 · 数据截至 2026-10-12 22:28 ET · 独立研究，与 Polymarket、Kalshi 均无关联。非投资建议。 · 译自英文原文 · 已自动核对
截至 2026 年 10 月 12 日，Polymarket 上，众议院控制权归属最可能的结果是“民主党”，概率 90.5%。
费后来看，Polymarket 在“共和党”上更便宜。
市场目前的判断是“民主党”，概率 90.5%；哪个平台费后更便宜要看具体结果（见上表）。要跟踪 11 月 3 日众议院控制权归属落定，人们通常会关注 全国普选民调与众议院整体普选票。本页只帮你看懂盘面、比较成本，不替你决定押哪边。
价格口径与中期选举各页面一致：Polymarket 显示该市场展示的 Yes 价格。当最优 Yes 买价与最优 Yes 卖价相差不超过 8¢ 时，Kalshi 显示两者的中间价，否则显示最优 Yes 买价。没有 Yes 买价的结果显示 —。
两个市场问的都是 2026 年中期选举后哪个政党控制美国众议院，但两家平台的规则措辞并不相同。以下规则原文摘自各自平台，保留英文原样。
按在 2026 年选举中赢得众议院控制权的政党结算——即拿下该院过半数投票席位者；若没有政党取得多数，则以首位当选议长所属政党为准。
以下为平台官方规则原文的逐字引用：
This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States House of Representatives in the 2026 United States midterm election. A party wins control of the United States House of Representatives if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first elected Speaker of the House of the Congress that convenes after the 2026 midterm election is affiliated. The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chamber. All House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress are included. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
按指定政党是否赢得 2026 年众议院控制权结算；其规则允许依据媒体判定共识提前确定，否则以众议院议长所属政党为准。
以下为平台官方规则原文的逐字引用：
Democratic Party: If the Democratic Party has won control of the House in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Republican Party: If the Republican Party has won control of the House in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. This market may be determined early based on a consensus of media calls projecting control of the U.S. House. See full rules for details. Otherwise, victory will be determined by the party identification of the Speaker of the House on February 1, 2027.
规则原文已于 2026-10-05 对照各平台自有页面核对，并以英文原文展示。
它是以一个问题为标的的市场：2026 年中期选举后，哪个政党将控制美国众议院。Polymarket 和 Kalshi 各自挂出民主党与共和党两份合约，每份合约的价格即被读作该结果的发生概率。PolyKal 把两个平台并排展示。
两者的措辞不同。Polymarket 按选举中赢得众议院控制权的政党结算，以过半数投票席位为准；若没有多数，则以首位当选议长所属政党为准。Kalshi 按该党是否赢得 2026 年众议院控制权结算，可以依据媒体判定共识提前确定，否则以议长所属政党为准。上方的结算规则区块展示了各平台的原文。
每个平台都有自己的交易者、订单簿、费用和规则措辞，价格抓取时点也略有先后。PolyKal 还采用明确的取价口径：Polymarket 用其显示价格；Kalshi 在买卖价差不超过 8 美分时取买卖中间价，否则取最高买价。出现小幅差异属正常，页面以百分点呈现，并不作为信号。
本页数据约每 15 分钟从各平台的公开数据刷新一次，页面上的“Data as of”时间显示的是数据抓取时点。这是一份快照，不是实时数据流。
两个问题的答案都是否定的。PolyKal 是一个免费、只读的研究网站：没有账户，也没有交易功能，本站任何内容都不构成建议。它不公布选举结果，只展示这两个市场当时的定价情况；投票结束后，本页面就会停止更新，并显示投票结束前的最后价格。
两个平台的价格取自官方公开订单簿。时间统一为 ET。
扣除费用后的成本使用费率表中当前、带日期的 taker 费率。如果某个结果只在一个平台上交易，我们会显示“不可比”，而不是留空。
PolyKal Research. “2026 众议院控制权：Polymarket 与 Kalshi 怎么比.” PolyKal Research, 2026 年 10 月 5 日. https://polykal.net/zh-Hans/topics/house-control-2026/（访问日期：你查看本页的日期）。