比較 Polymarket 與 Kalshi 對 2026 年 內布拉斯加州參議員選舉 的機率，並附上當前賠率與 24 小時成交量。
| 候選人 | P Polymarket | K Kalshi | 差距 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Ricketts · R | 72.5% | 73.5% | 1.0 個百分點 |
| 無黨籍 Kalshi 上列為 Dan Osborn 無黨籍：各平台各自展示，不做比較 | 28.5% | 26.5% | — |
| 民主黨提名人 · D 依政黨配對 · Kalshi 上的名稱為 Cindy Burbank | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1 個百分點 |
差距＝百分點的絕對差值。只有在兩平台名稱一致時才會計算差距。佔位選項已過濾。
Pete Ricketts — 目前領先的候選人。
| 日期（UTC） | Polymarket | Kalshi | 差距 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | 72.5% | 73.5% | 1.0 個百分點 |
| 2026-10-13 | 72.5% | 73.5% | 1.0 個百分點 |
24 小時區間：Polymarket 71.5–72.5% · Kalshi 72.5–73.5% · 最大差距 1.5 個百分點，出現於 10-12
| 日期（UTC） | Polymarket | Kalshi | 差距 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-06 | 71.5% | 72.5% | 1.0 個百分點 |
| 2026-10-07 | 71.5% | 73.0% | 1.5 個百分點 |
| 2026-10-08 | 71.5% | 73.5% | 2.0 個百分點 |
| 2026-10-09 | 71.5% | 73.5% | 2.0 個百分點 |
| 2026-10-10 | 71.5% | 73.0% | 1.5 個百分點 |
| 2026-10-11 | 71.5% | 73.0% | 1.5 個百分點 |
| 2026-10-12 | 72.5% | 73.5% | 1.0 個百分點 |
| 2026-10-13 | 72.5% | 73.5% | 1.0 個百分點 |
7 天區間：Polymarket 69.5–73.5% · Kalshi 70.5–73.5% · 最大差距 2.5 個百分點，出現於 10-06
| 日期（UTC） | Polymarket | Kalshi | 差距 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 | 69.5% | 70.5% | 1.0 個百分點 |
| 2026-09-29 | 69.5% | 72.5% | 3.0 個百分點 |
| 2026-09-30 | 70.5% | 72.5% | 2.0 個百分點 |
| 2026-10-01 | 73.5% | 72.5% | 1.0 個百分點 |
| 2026-10-02 | 74.0% | 72.5% | 1.5 個百分點 |
| 2026-10-03 | 72.5% | 72.5% | 0.0 個百分點 |
| 2026-10-04 | 72.5% | 72.5% | 0.0 個百分點 |
| 2026-10-05 | 73.5% | 71.5% | 2.0 個百分點 |
| 2026-10-06 | 71.5% | 72.5% | 1.0 個百分點 |
| 2026-10-07 | 71.5% | 73.0% | 1.5 個百分點 |
| 2026-10-08 | 71.5% | 73.5% | 2.0 個百分點 |
| 2026-10-09 | 71.5% | 73.5% | 2.0 個百分點 |
| 2026-10-10 | 71.5% | 73.0% | 1.5 個百分點 |
| 2026-10-11 | 71.5% | 73.0% | 1.5 個百分點 |
| 2026-10-12 | 72.5% | 73.5% | 1.0 個百分點 |
| 2026-10-13 | 72.5% | 73.5% | 1.0 個百分點 |
全部區間：Polymarket 69.5–75.0% · Kalshi 70.5–73.5% · 最大差距 3.0 個百分點，出現於 09-29
兩個合約都指向 2026 年選舉結果，但措辭不同。並排呈現，不予合併。
依選舉結果結算：待美聯社、福斯新聞與 NBC 都宣布同一人勝出後才結算；否則以官方認證為準。
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Nebraska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
依該黨代表在 2026 年選舉後宣誓就職或就任為結算依據；若多家媒體機構已有一致預測，可能提前確定。
Cindy Burbank: If a representative of the Democratic party is sworn in as a Senator of Nebraska for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Pete Ricketts: If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Nebraska for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Dan Osborn: If Dan Osborn (as an independent) is sworn in as a Senator of Nebraska for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. This market will close early following the swearing in of the Senator for the seat in question.
規則原文取自各平台於 2026-10-05 的公開市場資料。投票日為 2026 年 11 月 3 日；平台的結束日期為佔位值，不予顯示。 規則原文本身以平台的原始英文呈現。
機率就是市場本身的價格。Kalshi 部分取最佳買價與賣價的中間值；價差大於 8¢ 時代表市場流動性不足，因此改採最佳買價。Polymarket 部分則採用其自行顯示的價格。唯有經人工確認兩平台指的是同一場選舉、同一職位、同一州、同一日期與同一組候選人後，該場選舉才會標示為 已核驗；否則標示為 自動配對。缺漏資料顯示為「—」，絕不會顯示為 0。兩平台對結算規則的措辭不同，每場選舉頁面都會並列呈現雙方原文。本頁僅提供資訊，不構成投注、投資或法律建議。
資料來源：Polymarket 公開 API · Kalshi 公開 API · 官方選舉行事曆。 完整方法論 → · 計算器 →
PolyKal.「內布拉斯加州參議員選舉 2026 年選舉：Polymarket vs Kalshi」。資料截至 2026-10-13 02:25 UTC。polykal.net/midterms/senate/nebraska/
Polymarket 的民主黨選項以民主黨提名人結算；Kalshi 將該提名人列為 Cindy Burbank。無黨籍候選人由各平台各自展示，不做比較。
Polymarket 的成交量以美元計；Kalshi 的成交量以合約計。
比較 Polymarket 與 Kalshi 對 2026 年 內布拉斯加州參議員選舉 的機率，並附上當前賠率與 24 小時成交量。
| 候選人 | P Polymarket | K Kalshi | 差距 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Ricketts · R | 72.5% | 73.5% | 1.0 個百分點 |
| 無黨籍 Kalshi 上列為 Dan Osborn 無黨籍：各平台各自展示，不做比較 | 28.5% | 26.5% | — |
| 民主黨提名人 · D 依政黨配對 · Kalshi 上的名稱為 Cindy Burbank | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1 個百分點 |
差距＝百分點的絕對差值。只有在兩平台名稱一致時才會計算差距。佔位選項已過濾。
Pete Ricketts — 目前領先的候選人。
| 日期（UTC） | Polymarket | Kalshi | 差距 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | 72.5% | 73.5% | 1.0 個百分點 |
| 2026-10-13 | 72.5% | 73.5% | 1.0 個百分點 |
24 小時區間：Polymarket 71.5–72.5% · Kalshi 72.5–73.5% · 最大差距 1.5 個百分點，出現於 10-12
| 日期（UTC） | Polymarket | Kalshi | 差距 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-06 | 71.5% | 72.5% | 1.0 個百分點 |
| 2026-10-07 | 71.5% | 73.0% | 1.5 個百分點 |
| 2026-10-08 | 71.5% | 73.5% | 2.0 個百分點 |
| 2026-10-09 | 71.5% | 73.5% | 2.0 個百分點 |
| 2026-10-10 | 71.5% | 73.0% | 1.5 個百分點 |
| 2026-10-11 | 71.5% | 73.0% | 1.5 個百分點 |
| 2026-10-12 | 72.5% | 73.5% | 1.0 個百分點 |
| 2026-10-13 | 72.5% | 73.5% | 1.0 個百分點 |
7 天區間：Polymarket 69.5–73.5% · Kalshi 70.5–73.5% · 最大差距 2.5 個百分點，出現於 10-06
| 日期（UTC） | Polymarket | Kalshi | 差距 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 | 69.5% | 70.5% | 1.0 個百分點 |
| 2026-09-29 | 69.5% | 72.5% | 3.0 個百分點 |
| 2026-09-30 | 70.5% | 72.5% | 2.0 個百分點 |
| 2026-10-01 | 73.5% | 72.5% | 1.0 個百分點 |
| 2026-10-02 | 74.0% | 72.5% | 1.5 個百分點 |
| 2026-10-03 | 72.5% | 72.5% | 0.0 個百分點 |
| 2026-10-04 | 72.5% | 72.5% | 0.0 個百分點 |
| 2026-10-05 | 73.5% | 71.5% | 2.0 個百分點 |
| 2026-10-06 | 71.5% | 72.5% | 1.0 個百分點 |
| 2026-10-07 | 71.5% | 73.0% | 1.5 個百分點 |
| 2026-10-08 | 71.5% | 73.5% | 2.0 個百分點 |
| 2026-10-09 | 71.5% | 73.5% | 2.0 個百分點 |
| 2026-10-10 | 71.5% | 73.0% | 1.5 個百分點 |
| 2026-10-11 | 71.5% | 73.0% | 1.5 個百分點 |
| 2026-10-12 | 72.5% | 73.5% | 1.0 個百分點 |
| 2026-10-13 | 72.5% | 73.5% | 1.0 個百分點 |
全部區間：Polymarket 69.5–75.0% · Kalshi 70.5–73.5% · 最大差距 3.0 個百分點，出現於 09-29
兩個合約都指向 2026 年選舉結果，但措辭不同。並排呈現，不予合併。
依選舉結果結算：待美聯社、福斯新聞與 NBC 都宣布同一人勝出後才結算；否則以官方認證為準。
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Nebraska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
依該黨代表在 2026 年選舉後宣誓就職或就任為結算依據；若多家媒體機構已有一致預測，可能提前確定。
Cindy Burbank: If a representative of the Democratic party is sworn in as a Senator of Nebraska for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Pete Ricketts: If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Nebraska for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Dan Osborn: If Dan Osborn (as an independent) is sworn in as a Senator of Nebraska for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. This market will close early following the swearing in of the Senator for the seat in question.
規則原文取自各平台於 2026-10-05 的公開市場資料。投票日為 2026 年 11 月 3 日；平台的結束日期為佔位值，不予顯示。 規則原文本身以平台的原始英文呈現。
機率就是市場本身的價格。Kalshi 部分取最佳買價與賣價的中間值；價差大於 8¢ 時代表市場流動性不足，因此改採最佳買價。Polymarket 部分則採用其自行顯示的價格。唯有經人工確認兩平台指的是同一場選舉、同一職位、同一州、同一日期與同一組候選人後，該場選舉才會標示為 已核驗；否則標示為 自動配對。缺漏資料顯示為「—」，絕不會顯示為 0。兩平台對結算規則的措辭不同，每場選舉頁面都會並列呈現雙方原文。本頁僅提供資訊，不構成投注、投資或法律建議。
資料來源：Polymarket 公開 API · Kalshi 公開 API · 官方選舉行事曆。 完整方法論 → · 計算器 →
PolyKal.「內布拉斯加州參議員選舉 2026 年選舉：Polymarket vs Kalshi」。資料截至 2026-10-13 02:25 UTC。polykal.net/midterms/senate/nebraska/
Polymarket 的民主黨選項以民主黨提名人結算；Kalshi 將該提名人列為 Cindy Burbank。無黨籍候選人由各平台各自展示，不做比較。
Polymarket 的成交量以美元計；Kalshi 的成交量以合約計。