Prices for Alberta Independence Referendum: Margin of Victory on Polymarket. A price of 41¢ means traders on that platform price the outcome at about 41%. It is a market price, not a forecast by PolyKal.
Independent research, not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Not trading advice. PolyKal stops updating prices before the first polls open and does not report election results.
| Option | PPolymarket |
|---|---|
| Leave wins | 0.7¢ |
| Remain 80%+ | 1.2¢ |
| Remain 20–40% | 19.5¢ |
| Remain 40–60% | 64.5¢ |
| Remain 60–80% | 15.0¢ |
| Remain <20% | 3.8¢ |
| Other | — |
Only listed on Polymarket.
Official rule text
Alberta is scheduled to hold a provincial referendum on October 19, 2026. Question 10 asks: "Should Alberta remain a province in Canada, or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?" For the purposes of this market, "Remain" refers to the option that Alberta should remain a province in Canada, and "Leave" refers to the option that the Government of Alberta should commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on separation. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Remain" and "Leave" on Question 10. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Remain" and "Leave". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast on Question 10. If "Leave" receives more valid votes than "Remain", this market will resolve to "Leave wins". If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If "Remain" and "Leave" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to "Remain <20%". This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Alberta, including Elections Alberta (https://www.elections.ab.ca/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
PolyKal stops updating prices before the first polls open and does not report election results. Prices use the same method as the Midterms pages: Polymarket shows the market's displayed Yes price. Kalshi shows the midpoint of the highest Yes bid and the lowest Yes ask when they are within 8¢ of each other, and otherwise the highest Yes bid. Options with no Yes bid show —.
Available from 16 October 2026.
Available from 24 November 2026. Bid, ask, spread, order book depth and open interest for each option.
Available from 24 November 2026. Notes on large price moves, with the facts reported in the same period.
Available from 20 October 2026. One row per option, per day, Polymarket prices only (CSV).
Each platform resolves its market on the official result named in its own rules. The rule text is quoted on this page.
No. This election is only listed on Polymarket right now, so the page shows Polymarket prices and rules without a cross-platform comparison.
Every priced option in the market is listed in alphabetical order. The list follows the market, not an official candidate list.
No. PolyKal stops updating prices before the first polls open and keeps the last pre-election prices as a snapshot. It does not report election results.
Every 15 minutes until prices stop updating before the vote.
Prices for Alberta Independence Referendum: Margin of Victory on Polymarket. A price of 41¢ means traders on that platform price the outcome at about 41%. It is a market price, not a forecast by PolyKal.
Independent research, not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Not trading advice. PolyKal stops updating prices before the first polls open and does not report election results.
| Option | PPolymarket |
|---|---|
| Leave wins | 0.7¢ |
| Remain 80%+ | 1.2¢ |
| Remain 20–40% | 19.5¢ |
| Remain 40–60% | 64.5¢ |
| Remain 60–80% | 15.0¢ |
| Remain <20% | 3.8¢ |
| Other | — |
Only listed on Polymarket.
Official rule text
Alberta is scheduled to hold a provincial referendum on October 19, 2026. Question 10 asks: "Should Alberta remain a province in Canada, or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?" For the purposes of this market, "Remain" refers to the option that Alberta should remain a province in Canada, and "Leave" refers to the option that the Government of Alberta should commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on separation. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Remain" and "Leave" on Question 10. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Remain" and "Leave". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast on Question 10. If "Leave" receives more valid votes than "Remain", this market will resolve to "Leave wins". If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If "Remain" and "Leave" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to "Remain <20%". This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Alberta, including Elections Alberta (https://www.elections.ab.ca/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
PolyKal stops updating prices before the first polls open and does not report election results. Prices use the same method as the Midterms pages: Polymarket shows the market's displayed Yes price. Kalshi shows the midpoint of the highest Yes bid and the lowest Yes ask when they are within 8¢ of each other, and otherwise the highest Yes bid. Options with no Yes bid show —.
Available from 16 October 2026.
Available from 24 November 2026. Bid, ask, spread, order book depth and open interest for each option.
Available from 24 November 2026. Notes on large price moves, with the facts reported in the same period.
Available from 20 October 2026. One row per option, per day, Polymarket prices only (CSV).
Each platform resolves its market on the official result named in its own rules. The rule text is quoted on this page.
No. This election is only listed on Polymarket right now, so the page shows Polymarket prices and rules without a cross-platform comparison.
Every priced option in the market is listed in alphabetical order. The list follows the market, not an official candidate list.
No. PolyKal stops updating prices before the first polls open and keeps the last pre-election prices as a snapshot. It does not report election results.
Every 15 minutes until prices stop updating before the vote.