Compare how Polymarket and Kalshi price the 2026 U.S. midterm elections — Senate and House control, governor races, and where the two platforms disagree.
Seat counts from the official chamber rules; market figures are trader prices, not forecasts.
Which party holds a majority after Nov 3
Which party holds a majority after Nov 3
Control of Congress is defined by the two results. Balance-of-power market · updated 2026-10-13 02:27 UTC.
P = Polymarket, K = Kalshi. Trader prices, not forecasts.
Trader prices on each platform — not the probability of an outcome, not a PolyKal forecast.
| Question | Polymarket | Kalshi | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrats win the House House control · Rules and history | 90.5% | 89.5% | 02:25 UTC |
| Democrats win the Senate Senate control · Rules and history | 63.5% | 61.5% | 02:25 UTC |
Prices freeze before polls close (2026-11-03 22:30 UTC) and are never replaced by settlement prices. Platform links are nofollow.
Same race, two prices. Ranked by the gap between Polymarket and Kalshi.
| Race | Verified | P Polymarket | K Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan Senate | Checked | 70.5% | 67.5% | 3.0 pts |
| Nevada Governor | Checked | 54.5% | 51.5% | 3.0 pts |
| Texas Governor | Checked | 79.4% | 81.5% | 2.1 pts |
| Alaska Governor | Auto-matched | 78.5% | 76.5% | 2.0 pts |
| Alaska Senate | Auto-matched | 72.5% | 74.5% | 2.0 pts |
Gap = difference between the two platforms' probability for the same leading candidate, in percentage points. Data as of 2026-10-13 02:27 UTC.
Change in the leading candidate's probability.
| Race | Platform | Before | Now | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa Governor | K | 87.5% | 89.5% | +2.0 pts |
| New Jersey Senate | K | 98.5% | 96.9% | −1.6 pts |
| Iowa Governor | P | 86.5% | 88.0% | +1.5 pts |
| Pennsylvania Governor | K | 97.1% | 98.4% | +1.3 pts |
| Alabama Governor | K | 91.4% | 92.6% | +1.2 pts |
Change in the leading candidate's probability on that platform. Direction is a sign, not a colour.
| Race | Platform | Before | Now | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Governor | K | 74.5% | 81.5% | +7.0 pts |
| Texas Governor | P | 73.0% | 79.4% | +6.4 pts |
| Michigan Senate | K | 73.5% | 67.5% | −6.0 pts |
| Kansas Senate | P | 67.5% | 62.5% | −5.0 pts |
| New Mexico Governor | P | 95.5% | 90.5% | −5.0 pts |
Change in the leading candidate's probability on that platform. Direction is a sign, not a colour.
Missing values are shown as “—”, never as 0.
| Race | Verified | P 24H volume (USD) | K 24H volume (contracts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Senate | Checked | $113K | 567K |
| Michigan Senate | Checked | $34K | 108K |
| Iowa Governor | Checked | $17K | 27K |
| Ohio Senate | Checked | $13K | 53K |
| Arizona Governor | Checked | $13K | 17K |
Polymarket volume is in US dollars; Kalshi volume is in contracts (about $1 face value each), so the two columns are not directly comparable. Missing values are shown as “—”, never as 0.
Senate and governor races where the two platforms' average is closest to 50%.
Other prediction markets around the midterms, each answering its own question.
National House vote margin. Both platforms list it; buckets and sources differ, so we link rather than compare.
Presidential approval. The two platforms use different data sources, so we link rather than compare.
Probabilities are the markets' own prices. For Kalshi we take the midpoint of the best bid and ask; when the spread is wider than 8¢ the market is thin, so we use the best bid instead. For Polymarket we use its own displayed price. A race is marked Checked only after a person has confirmed it is the same election, office, state, date and candidates on both platforms; otherwise it is Auto-matched. Missing data is shown as “—”, never as 0. The two platforms word their settlement rules differently; each race page shows both texts side by side. This page is information only and is not betting, investment or legal advice.
Sources: Polymarket public API · Kalshi public API · official election calendars. Full methodology → · Calculator →
PolyKal. “2026 U.S. Midterm Elections: Polymarket vs Kalshi.” Data as of 2026-10-13 02:27 UTC. polykal.net/midterms/
This page lines up Polymarket and Kalshi prices for the same 2026 midterm races, shows the gap between them, and says when each number was last updated. Prices are the markets' own; we do not predict outcomes.
They are separate markets with different traders, liquidity, fees and rules, so the same question can trade at slightly different prices. A small gap is normal; a wider gap can reflect thin trading on one side or differences in how the contract is worded.
Checked means a person has confirmed that the Polymarket and Kalshi markets are the same election, office, state, date and candidates. Auto-matched means the two markets were paired automatically by state, office and date but have not been checked individually yet.
Yes. The two platforms use different fee formulas and rates, and fees depend on the market. See the fee schedule and the fee calculator on this site for current, dated figures; the probabilities on this page are prices and do not include fees.
Senate and House control, plus every Senate and governor race where both Polymarket and Kalshi list a market, apart from a few races where the two platforms define the contract differently. Races where only one platform has a market are not ranked, and placeholder options with no price are filtered out.
For each race we take the candidate with the highest combined probability across both platforms and subtract the two platforms' probabilities for that same candidate. The result is shown in percentage points and is never negative; a gap is only computed when the candidate's name matches on both platforms.
Market prices are captured every five minutes and the pages are rebuilt about every fifteen minutes. Every data block shows the time of the snapshot it was built from, and data older than 24 hours is not shown as current.
Neither is better in general. The platforms differ in how their contracts are set up, how fees work and how much trading each race attracts. We show both side by side and do not recommend either one.
You may quote our pages with credit to PolyKal and a link to the page. The market prices themselves are third-party data from Polymarket and Kalshi and are not licensed by PolyKal.
No. PolyKal is a free, read-only research and comparison tool. We do not offer trading, betting or accounts, and these pages do not link to sign-up pages. Nothing here is betting, investment or legal advice.
Compare how Polymarket and Kalshi price the 2026 U.S. midterm elections — Senate and House control, governor races, and where the two platforms disagree.
Seat counts from the official chamber rules; market figures are trader prices, not forecasts.
Which party holds a majority after Nov 3
Which party holds a majority after Nov 3
Control of Congress is defined by the two results. Balance-of-power market · updated 2026-10-13 02:27 UTC.
P = Polymarket, K = Kalshi. Trader prices, not forecasts.
Trader prices on each platform — not the probability of an outcome, not a PolyKal forecast.
| Question | Polymarket | Kalshi | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrats win the House House control · Rules and history | 90.5% | 89.5% | 02:25 UTC |
| Democrats win the Senate Senate control · Rules and history | 63.5% | 61.5% | 02:25 UTC |
Prices freeze before polls close (2026-11-03 22:30 UTC) and are never replaced by settlement prices. Platform links are nofollow.
Same race, two prices. Ranked by the gap between Polymarket and Kalshi.
| Race | Verified | P Polymarket | K Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan Senate | Checked | 70.5% | 67.5% | 3.0 pts |
| Nevada Governor | Checked | 54.5% | 51.5% | 3.0 pts |
| Texas Governor | Checked | 79.4% | 81.5% | 2.1 pts |
| Alaska Governor | Auto-matched | 78.5% | 76.5% | 2.0 pts |
| Alaska Senate | Auto-matched | 72.5% | 74.5% | 2.0 pts |
Gap = difference between the two platforms' probability for the same leading candidate, in percentage points. Data as of 2026-10-13 02:27 UTC.
Change in the leading candidate's probability.
| Race | Platform | Before | Now | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa Governor | K | 87.5% | 89.5% | +2.0 pts |
| New Jersey Senate | K | 98.5% | 96.9% | −1.6 pts |
| Iowa Governor | P | 86.5% | 88.0% | +1.5 pts |
| Pennsylvania Governor | K | 97.1% | 98.4% | +1.3 pts |
| Alabama Governor | K | 91.4% | 92.6% | +1.2 pts |
Change in the leading candidate's probability on that platform. Direction is a sign, not a colour.
| Race | Platform | Before | Now | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Governor | K | 74.5% | 81.5% | +7.0 pts |
| Texas Governor | P | 73.0% | 79.4% | +6.4 pts |
| Michigan Senate | K | 73.5% | 67.5% | −6.0 pts |
| Kansas Senate | P | 67.5% | 62.5% | −5.0 pts |
| New Mexico Governor | P | 95.5% | 90.5% | −5.0 pts |
Change in the leading candidate's probability on that platform. Direction is a sign, not a colour.
Missing values are shown as “—”, never as 0.
| Race | Verified | P 24H volume (USD) | K 24H volume (contracts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Senate | Checked | $113K | 567K |
| Michigan Senate | Checked | $34K | 108K |
| Iowa Governor | Checked | $17K | 27K |
| Ohio Senate | Checked | $13K | 53K |
| Arizona Governor | Checked | $13K | 17K |
Polymarket volume is in US dollars; Kalshi volume is in contracts (about $1 face value each), so the two columns are not directly comparable. Missing values are shown as “—”, never as 0.
Senate and governor races where the two platforms' average is closest to 50%.
Other prediction markets around the midterms, each answering its own question.
National House vote margin. Both platforms list it; buckets and sources differ, so we link rather than compare.
Presidential approval. The two platforms use different data sources, so we link rather than compare.
Probabilities are the markets' own prices. For Kalshi we take the midpoint of the best bid and ask; when the spread is wider than 8¢ the market is thin, so we use the best bid instead. For Polymarket we use its own displayed price. A race is marked Checked only after a person has confirmed it is the same election, office, state, date and candidates on both platforms; otherwise it is Auto-matched. Missing data is shown as “—”, never as 0. The two platforms word their settlement rules differently; each race page shows both texts side by side. This page is information only and is not betting, investment or legal advice.
Sources: Polymarket public API · Kalshi public API · official election calendars. Full methodology → · Calculator →
PolyKal. “2026 U.S. Midterm Elections: Polymarket vs Kalshi.” Data as of 2026-10-13 02:27 UTC. polykal.net/midterms/
This page lines up Polymarket and Kalshi prices for the same 2026 midterm races, shows the gap between them, and says when each number was last updated. Prices are the markets' own; we do not predict outcomes.
They are separate markets with different traders, liquidity, fees and rules, so the same question can trade at slightly different prices. A small gap is normal; a wider gap can reflect thin trading on one side or differences in how the contract is worded.
Checked means a person has confirmed that the Polymarket and Kalshi markets are the same election, office, state, date and candidates. Auto-matched means the two markets were paired automatically by state, office and date but have not been checked individually yet.
Yes. The two platforms use different fee formulas and rates, and fees depend on the market. See the fee schedule and the fee calculator on this site for current, dated figures; the probabilities on this page are prices and do not include fees.
Senate and House control, plus every Senate and governor race where both Polymarket and Kalshi list a market, apart from a few races where the two platforms define the contract differently. Races where only one platform has a market are not ranked, and placeholder options with no price are filtered out.
For each race we take the candidate with the highest combined probability across both platforms and subtract the two platforms' probabilities for that same candidate. The result is shown in percentage points and is never negative; a gap is only computed when the candidate's name matches on both platforms.
Market prices are captured every five minutes and the pages are rebuilt about every fifteen minutes. Every data block shows the time of the snapshot it was built from, and data older than 24 hours is not shown as current.
Neither is better in general. The platforms differ in how their contracts are set up, how fees work and how much trading each race attracts. We show both side by side and do not recommend either one.
You may quote our pages with credit to PolyKal and a link to the page. The market prices themselves are third-party data from Polymarket and Kalshi and are not licensed by PolyKal.
No. PolyKal is a free, read-only research and comparison tool. We do not offer trading, betting or accounts, and these pages do not link to sign-up pages. Nothing here is betting, investment or legal advice.