Prices for Australia Federal Election on Polymarket and Kalshi, side by side. A price of 41¢ means traders on that platform price the outcome at about 41%. It is a market price, not a forecast by PolyKal.
Independent research, not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Not trading advice. PolyKal stops updating prices before the first polls open and does not report election results.
Kalshi lists this as: Prime Minister of Australia after the next election?
| Option | PPolymarket | KKalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Albanese | 35.5¢ | 38.0¢ | 2.5 pts |
| Jim Chalmers | 6.1¢ | 5.0¢ | 1.1 pts |
| Pauline Hanson | 23.0¢ | 16.0¢ | 7.0 pts |
| Angus Taylor | 7.5¢ | 19.5¢ | 12.0 pts |
| Option | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew Hastie | Kalshi | 5.0¢ |
| Jane Hume | Kalshi | 5.0¢ |
| Robbie Katter | Polymarket | 1.1¢ |
| Richard Marles | Kalshi | 5.0¢ |
| Larissa Waters | Polymarket | 0.5¢ |
| Other | Polymarket | — |
Listed on one platform only, so no gap is shown.
Official rule text
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Australia by September 23, 2028. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Australia following the 2028 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by June 30, 2029, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Australia however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official rule text (Kalshi lists one market per option with the same wording; shown here for the Anthony Albanese market)
If Anthony Albanese becomes Prime Minister of Australia as a result of government formation following the next Australian federal election for the House of Representatives and meets all constitutional requirements before Sep 23, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves to the first person who, as a result of government formation following the election, is formally appointed, sworn in, or invested as Prime Minister according to the country's constitutional procedures, commands the confidence of the parliament/legislature, and exercises the full powers of the office (not serving in a caretaker/acting capacity from the previous government). If no government forms by Sep 23, 2029, the Contract resolves to "No one" if that is an option and No for all other strikes. If new elections are called before government formation, the Contract resolves to "No one" immediately and No for all other strikes.
| Option | KKalshi |
|---|---|
| Australian Greens | 3.1¢ |
| Australian Labor Party | 49.5¢ |
| Liberal-National Coalition | 39.0¢ |
| One Nation | 6.2¢ |
Only listed on Kalshi.
Official rule text (Kalshi lists one market per option with the same wording; shown here for the Australian Labor Party market)
If the winner of the next Australian House election is Australian Labor Party, then the market resolves to Yes. For parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the same number of seats, the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No; if both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No. This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details.
| Option | KKalshi |
|---|---|
| Australian Greens | 2.7¢ |
| Australian Labor Party | 70.0¢ |
| Liberal-National Coalition | 8.5¢ |
| One Nation | 0.1¢ |
Only listed on Kalshi.
Official rule text (Kalshi lists one market per option with the same wording; shown here for the Australian Labor Party market)
If the winner of the next Australian Senate election is Australian Labor Party, then the market resolves to Yes. For parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the same number of seats, the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No; if both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No. This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details.
PolyKal stops updating prices before the first polls open and does not report election results. Prices use the same method as the Midterms pages: Polymarket shows the market's displayed Yes price. Kalshi shows the midpoint of the highest Yes bid and the lowest Yes ask when they are within 8¢ of each other, and otherwise the highest Yes bid. Options with no Yes bid show —.
Available from 16 October 2026.
Available from 24 November 2026. Bid, ask, spread, order book depth and open interest for each option.
Available from 24 November 2026. Notes on large price moves, with the facts reported in the same period.
Available from 20 October 2026. One row per option, per day, Polymarket prices only (CSV).
Each platform resolves its market on the official result named in its own rules. The rule text is quoted on this page.
The two platforms have different rules for what counts as winning, different fees, different users and different amounts of money in each market.
Options listed on both Polymarket and Kalshi are compared side by side, in alphabetical order. Options listed on only one platform are shown separately, without a gap figure. The list follows the markets, not an official candidate list.
No. PolyKal stops updating prices before the first polls open and keeps the last pre-election prices as a snapshot. It does not report election results.
Every 15 minutes until prices stop updating before the vote.
Prices for Australia Federal Election on Polymarket and Kalshi, side by side. A price of 41¢ means traders on that platform price the outcome at about 41%. It is a market price, not a forecast by PolyKal.
Independent research, not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Not trading advice. PolyKal stops updating prices before the first polls open and does not report election results.
Kalshi lists this as: Prime Minister of Australia after the next election?
| Option | PPolymarket | KKalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Albanese | 35.5¢ | 38.0¢ | 2.5 pts |
| Jim Chalmers | 6.1¢ | 5.0¢ | 1.1 pts |
| Pauline Hanson | 23.0¢ | 16.0¢ | 7.0 pts |
| Angus Taylor | 7.5¢ | 19.5¢ | 12.0 pts |
| Option | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew Hastie | Kalshi | 5.0¢ |
| Jane Hume | Kalshi | 5.0¢ |
| Robbie Katter | Polymarket | 1.1¢ |
| Richard Marles | Kalshi | 5.0¢ |
| Larissa Waters | Polymarket | 0.5¢ |
| Other | Polymarket | — |
Listed on one platform only, so no gap is shown.
Official rule text
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Australia by September 23, 2028. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Australia following the 2028 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by June 30, 2029, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Australia however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official rule text (Kalshi lists one market per option with the same wording; shown here for the Anthony Albanese market)
If Anthony Albanese becomes Prime Minister of Australia as a result of government formation following the next Australian federal election for the House of Representatives and meets all constitutional requirements before Sep 23, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves to the first person who, as a result of government formation following the election, is formally appointed, sworn in, or invested as Prime Minister according to the country's constitutional procedures, commands the confidence of the parliament/legislature, and exercises the full powers of the office (not serving in a caretaker/acting capacity from the previous government). If no government forms by Sep 23, 2029, the Contract resolves to "No one" if that is an option and No for all other strikes. If new elections are called before government formation, the Contract resolves to "No one" immediately and No for all other strikes.
| Option | KKalshi |
|---|---|
| Australian Greens | 3.1¢ |
| Australian Labor Party | 49.5¢ |
| Liberal-National Coalition | 39.0¢ |
| One Nation | 6.2¢ |
Only listed on Kalshi.
Official rule text (Kalshi lists one market per option with the same wording; shown here for the Australian Labor Party market)
If the winner of the next Australian House election is Australian Labor Party, then the market resolves to Yes. For parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the same number of seats, the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No; if both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No. This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details.
| Option | KKalshi |
|---|---|
| Australian Greens | 2.7¢ |
| Australian Labor Party | 70.0¢ |
| Liberal-National Coalition | 8.5¢ |
| One Nation | 0.1¢ |
Only listed on Kalshi.
Official rule text (Kalshi lists one market per option with the same wording; shown here for the Australian Labor Party market)
If the winner of the next Australian Senate election is Australian Labor Party, then the market resolves to Yes. For parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the same number of seats, the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No; if both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No. This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details.
PolyKal stops updating prices before the first polls open and does not report election results. Prices use the same method as the Midterms pages: Polymarket shows the market's displayed Yes price. Kalshi shows the midpoint of the highest Yes bid and the lowest Yes ask when they are within 8¢ of each other, and otherwise the highest Yes bid. Options with no Yes bid show —.
Available from 16 October 2026.
Available from 24 November 2026. Bid, ask, spread, order book depth and open interest for each option.
Available from 24 November 2026. Notes on large price moves, with the facts reported in the same period.
Available from 20 October 2026. One row per option, per day, Polymarket prices only (CSV).
Each platform resolves its market on the official result named in its own rules. The rule text is quoted on this page.
The two platforms have different rules for what counts as winning, different fees, different users and different amounts of money in each market.
Options listed on both Polymarket and Kalshi are compared side by side, in alphabetical order. Options listed on only one platform are shown separately, without a gap figure. The list follows the markets, not an official candidate list.
No. PolyKal stops updating prices before the first polls open and keeps the last pre-election prices as a snapshot. It does not report election results.
Every 15 minutes until prices stop updating before the vote.