Prices for Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028 on Polymarket and Kalshi, side by side. A price of 41¢ means traders on that platform price the outcome at about 41%. It is a market price, not a forecast by PolyKal.
Independent research, not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Not trading advice. PolyKal stops updating prices before the first polls open and does not report election results.
| Option | PPolymarket |
|---|---|
| Felix Banaszak | 0.2¢ |
| Tino Chrupalla | 0.1¢ |
| Katharina Dröge | 0.1¢ |
| Lars Klingbeil | 0.7¢ |
| Carsten Linnemann | 0.1¢ |
| No Next Chancellor before 2028 | 61.5¢ |
| Boris Pistorius | 4.2¢ |
| Heidi Reichinnek | 0.1¢ |
| Markus Söder | 3.5¢ |
| Jens Spahn | 0.1¢ |
| Sahra Wagenknecht | 0.1¢ |
| Alice Weidel | 3.9¢ |
| Hendrik Wüst | 13.5¢ |
| Other | — |
Only listed on Polymarket.
Official rule text
Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025. This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany. To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
| Option | KKalshi |
|---|---|
| Felix Banaszak | 7.0¢ |
| Baerbel Bas | 6.0¢ |
| Lars Klingbeil | 6.0¢ |
| Friedrich Merz | 22.0¢ |
| No one | 6.0¢ |
| Alice Weidel | 16.5¢ |
Only listed on Kalshi.
Official rule text (Kalshi lists one market per option with the same wording; shown here for the Friedrich Merz market)
If Friedrich Merz becomes Chancellor of Germany as a result of government formation following the next German federal election and meets all constitutional requirements before Aug 26, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves to the first person who, as a result of government formation following the next German federal election, is formally appointed, sworn in, or invested as Chancellor, commands the confidence of the Bundestag, and exercises the full powers of the office rather than serving in a caretaker or acting capacity. A person who becomes Chancellor through an intra-term change of government, without a new federal election, does NOT resolve this market If no government has formed by Aug 26, 2029, No one resolves YES and every other market resolves NO If new elections are called before a government forms, No one resolves YES immediately This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details. For this market a qualifying declaration must identify the person who will hold the Chancellorship following government formation; a declaration that a party has won the election does NOT qualify.
PolyKal stops updating prices before the first polls open and does not report election results. Prices use the same method as the Midterms pages: Polymarket shows the market's displayed Yes price. Kalshi shows the midpoint of the highest Yes bid and the lowest Yes ask when they are within 8¢ of each other, and otherwise the highest Yes bid. Options with no Yes bid show —.
Available from 16 October 2026.
Available from 24 November 2026. Bid, ask, spread, order book depth and open interest for each option.
Available from 24 November 2026. Notes on large price moves, with the facts reported in the same period.
Available from 20 October 2026. One row per option, per day, Polymarket prices only (CSV).
Each platform resolves its market on the official result named in its own rules. The rule text is quoted on this page.
The two platforms have different rules for what counts as winning, different fees, different users and different amounts of money in each market.
Options listed on both Polymarket and Kalshi are compared side by side, in alphabetical order. Options listed on only one platform are shown separately, without a gap figure. The list follows the markets, not an official candidate list.
No. PolyKal stops updating prices before the first polls open and keeps the last pre-election prices as a snapshot. It does not report election results.
Every 15 minutes until prices stop updating before the vote.
Prices for Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028 on Polymarket and Kalshi, side by side. A price of 41¢ means traders on that platform price the outcome at about 41%. It is a market price, not a forecast by PolyKal.
Independent research, not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Not trading advice. PolyKal stops updating prices before the first polls open and does not report election results.
| Option | PPolymarket |
|---|---|
| Felix Banaszak | 0.2¢ |
| Tino Chrupalla | 0.1¢ |
| Katharina Dröge | 0.1¢ |
| Lars Klingbeil | 0.7¢ |
| Carsten Linnemann | 0.1¢ |
| No Next Chancellor before 2028 | 61.5¢ |
| Boris Pistorius | 4.2¢ |
| Heidi Reichinnek | 0.1¢ |
| Markus Söder | 3.5¢ |
| Jens Spahn | 0.1¢ |
| Sahra Wagenknecht | 0.1¢ |
| Alice Weidel | 3.9¢ |
| Hendrik Wüst | 13.5¢ |
| Other | — |
Only listed on Polymarket.
Official rule text
Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025. This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany. To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
| Option | KKalshi |
|---|---|
| Felix Banaszak | 7.0¢ |
| Baerbel Bas | 6.0¢ |
| Lars Klingbeil | 6.0¢ |
| Friedrich Merz | 22.0¢ |
| No one | 6.0¢ |
| Alice Weidel | 16.5¢ |
Only listed on Kalshi.
Official rule text (Kalshi lists one market per option with the same wording; shown here for the Friedrich Merz market)
If Friedrich Merz becomes Chancellor of Germany as a result of government formation following the next German federal election and meets all constitutional requirements before Aug 26, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves to the first person who, as a result of government formation following the next German federal election, is formally appointed, sworn in, or invested as Chancellor, commands the confidence of the Bundestag, and exercises the full powers of the office rather than serving in a caretaker or acting capacity. A person who becomes Chancellor through an intra-term change of government, without a new federal election, does NOT resolve this market If no government has formed by Aug 26, 2029, No one resolves YES and every other market resolves NO If new elections are called before a government forms, No one resolves YES immediately This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details. For this market a qualifying declaration must identify the person who will hold the Chancellorship following government formation; a declaration that a party has won the election does NOT qualify.
PolyKal stops updating prices before the first polls open and does not report election results. Prices use the same method as the Midterms pages: Polymarket shows the market's displayed Yes price. Kalshi shows the midpoint of the highest Yes bid and the lowest Yes ask when they are within 8¢ of each other, and otherwise the highest Yes bid. Options with no Yes bid show —.
Available from 16 October 2026.
Available from 24 November 2026. Bid, ask, spread, order book depth and open interest for each option.
Available from 24 November 2026. Notes on large price moves, with the facts reported in the same period.
Available from 20 October 2026. One row per option, per day, Polymarket prices only (CSV).
Each platform resolves its market on the official result named in its own rules. The rule text is quoted on this page.
The two platforms have different rules for what counts as winning, different fees, different users and different amounts of money in each market.
Options listed on both Polymarket and Kalshi are compared side by side, in alphabetical order. Options listed on only one platform are shown separately, without a gap figure. The list follows the markets, not an official candidate list.
No. PolyKal stops updating prices before the first polls open and keeps the last pre-election prices as a snapshot. It does not report election results.
Every 15 minutes until prices stop updating before the vote.