British Columbia General Election 2026: Polymarket vs Kalshi Prices

Official rule text

The 2026 British Columbia general election is currently scheduled to be held on October 24, 2026 to elect members of the Legislative Assembly of British Columbia. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of British Columbia as a result of the specified elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn-in as Premier following the specified elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Premier is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of British Columbia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Official rule text (Kalshi lists one market per option with the same wording; shown here for the David Eby market)

If David Eby becomes Premier of British Columbia as a result of government formation following the 2026 British Columbia general election and meets all constitutional requirements before Oct 24, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves to the first person who, as a result of government formation following the election, is formally appointed, sworn in, or invested as Premier according to British Columbia's constitutional procedures, commands the confidence of the Legislative Assembly, and exercises the full powers of the office (not serving in a caretaker/acting capacity from the previous government). If no government forms by Oct 24, 2027, the Contract resolves to "No one" if that is an option and No for all other strikes. If new elections are called before government formation, the Contract resolves to "No one" immediately and No for all other strikes. This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details.

Official rule text

General elections to elect the 93 members of the Legislative Assembly of British Columbia are scheduled to take place on October 24, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Legislative Assembly of British Columbia as a result of this election. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. A candidate will be considered a member of the party they contest the election under. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by Elections BC (https://elections.bc.ca/).

Official rule text (Kalshi lists one market per option with the same wording; shown here for the BC NDP market)

If BC NDP wins the 2026 British Columbia general election, then the market resolves to Yes. For parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the same number of seats, the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No; if both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No. This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details.

Official rule text

General elections to elect the 93 members of the Legislative Assembly of British Columbia are scheduled to take place on October 24, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the Legislative Assembly of British Columbia as a result of this election. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. A candidate will be considered a member of the party they contest the election under. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by Elections BC (https://elections.bc.ca/).

Official rule text (Kalshi lists one market per option with the same wording; shown here for the BC NDP market)

If BC NDP finishes in 2nd place in the 2026 British Columbia general election according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes. Ranking is determined by the specified counting method: For plurality voting: rank is based on province-wide certified valid-vote count or percentage, not seats won In case of exact ties, markets resolve proportionally (1/number of tied entities), rounded down. If no listed party is tied for second and an unlisted party finishes second, every named market resolves NO. Parties that withdraw or are disqualified after the filing deadline but remain on the ballot are ranked based on votes received. Resolution uses the final certified result from Elections BC, not the preliminary election-night count.

Official rule text

General elections to elect all 93 members of the Legislative Assembly of British Columbia are scheduled to take place on October 24, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Vernon-Lumby British Columbia Legislative Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections BC (https://elections.bc.ca/).

Official rule text

General elections to elect all 93 members of the Legislative Assembly of British Columbia are scheduled to take place on October 24, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Richmond-Steveston British Columbia Legislative Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections BC (https://elections.bc.ca/).

Official rule text

General elections to elect all 93 members of the Legislative Assembly of British Columbia are scheduled to take place on October 24, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows British Columbia Legislative Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections BC (https://elections.bc.ca/).

Official rule text

General elections to elect all 93 members of the Legislative Assembly of British Columbia are scheduled to take place on October 24, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Surrey-Fleetwood British Columbia Legislative Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections BC (https://elections.bc.ca/).

Official rule text

General elections to elect all 93 members of the Legislative Assembly of British Columbia are scheduled to take place on October 24, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Surrey-Newton British Columbia Legislative Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections BC (https://elections.bc.ca/).

Official rule text

General elections to elect all 93 members of the Legislative Assembly of British Columbia are scheduled to take place on October 24, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Coquitlam-Burke Mountain British Columbia Legislative Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections BC (https://elections.bc.ca/).

Official rule text

General elections to elect all 93 members of the Legislative Assembly of British Columbia are scheduled to take place on October 24, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Kelowna Centre British Columbia Legislative Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections BC (https://elections.bc.ca/).

Official rule text

General elections to elect all 93 members of the Legislative Assembly of British Columbia are scheduled to take place on October 24, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Surrey-Guildford British Columbia Legislative Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections BC (https://elections.bc.ca/).

Official rule text

General elections to elect all 93 members of the Legislative Assembly of British Columbia are scheduled to take place on October 24, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Cowichan Valley British Columbia Legislative Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections BC (https://elections.bc.ca/).

Official rule text

General elections to elect all 93 members of the Legislative Assembly of British Columbia are scheduled to take place on October 24, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Vancouver-Langara British Columbia Legislative Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections BC (https://elections.bc.ca/).

Official rule text

General elections to elect all 93 members of the Legislative Assembly of British Columbia are scheduled to take place on October 24, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Surrey City Centre British Columbia Legislative Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections BC (https://elections.bc.ca/).

Official rule text (Kalshi lists one market per option with the same wording; shown here for the Caroline Elliott market)

If Caroline Elliott formally holds the position of leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia before Jan 1, 2028, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes. The holder of the position at the time of Issuance is excluded. For the purposes of this Contract, only a subject who holds the position in a permanent, confirmed, elected, or otherwise non-acting and non-temporary capacity—as formally designated by the body or organization at which the position is held—is treated as formally holding the position; assumption of the role solely in an acting, interim, transitional, provisional, caretaker, pro tempore, or otherwise temporary capacity does not, by itself, satisfy the Payout Criterion.

Official rule text

General elections to elect all 93 members of the Legislative Assembly of British Columbia are scheduled to take place on October 24, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Vancouver-Yaletown British Columbia Legislative Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections BC (https://elections.bc.ca/).

Official rule text

General elections to elect the 93 members of the Legislative Assembly of British Columbia are scheduled to take place on October 24, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the Legislative Assembly of British Columbia as a result of this election. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. A candidate will be considered a member of the party they contest the election under. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by Elections BC (https://elections.bc.ca/).

Official rule text (Kalshi lists one market per option with the same wording; shown here for the BC NDP market)

If BC NDP finishes in 3rd place in the 2026 British Columbia general election according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes. Ranking is determined by the specified counting method: For plurality voting: rank is based on province-wide certified valid-vote count or percentage, not seats won In case of exact ties, markets resolve proportionally (1/number of tied entities), rounded down. If no listed party is tied for third and an unlisted party finishes third, every named market resolves NO. Parties that withdraw or are disqualified after the filing deadline but remain on the ballot are ranked based on votes received. Resolution uses the final certified result from Elections BC, not the preliminary election-night count.

Official rule text

General elections to elect all 93 members of the Legislative Assembly of British Columbia are scheduled to take place on October 24, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Burnaby South-Metrotown British Columbia Legislative Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections BC (https://elections.bc.ca/).

Official rule text (Kalshi lists one market per option with the same wording; shown here for the 17 or more market)

If the Conservative Party of British Columbia has won at least 17 seats in the 2026 British Columbia general election, then the market resolves to Yes. A seat is considered "won" when a candidate affiliated with the specified party has been declared elected by the relevant electoral authority and either: The time for legal challenges has expired Challenges have been resolved The member has taken their seat Party affiliation is determined by the party under whose banner the candidate was elected, regardless of subsequent changes. The count is determined when the new legislature takes their seats, even if some seats remain vacant or challenged. If the election is postponed beyond one year from the original date or cancelled entirely, the market resolves to the last fair market price. Only seats actually contested and filled are counted in partial elections. By-elections after the main election are included only if seated simultaneously with the rest of the legislature.

Official rule text (Kalshi lists one market per option with the same wording; shown here for the 32 or more market)

If the BC NDP has won at least 32 seats in the 2026 British Columbia general election, then the market resolves to Yes. A seat is considered "won" when a candidate affiliated with the specified party has been declared elected by the relevant electoral authority and either: The time for legal challenges has expired Challenges have been resolved The member has taken their seat Party affiliation is determined by the party under whose banner the candidate was elected, regardless of subsequent changes. The count is determined when the new legislature takes their seats, even if some seats remain vacant or challenged. If the election is postponed beyond one year from the original date or cancelled entirely, the market resolves to the last fair market price. Only seats actually contested and filled are counted in partial elections. By-elections after the main election are included only if seated simultaneously with the rest of the legislature.

Official rule text (Kalshi lists one market per option with the same wording; shown here for the BC NDP market)

If a coalition that includes BC NDP make up the next elected ruling government of British Columbia before Mar 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is not mutually exclusive and multiple markets may resolve to Yes. A party is considered to be part of government if one or more of its representatives hold at least one ministerial or cabinet-level position (including junior ministers or equivalent executive roles, if applicable) in the new government. This evaluation shall occur at the first official, stable formation of the government (i.e., once the legislative process for forming a government is complete and the head of state appoints ministers under normal non-caretaker circumstances). A party governing alone qualifies under this ministerial-position test. A confidence and supply arrangement (or any analogous agreement), where a party does not hold formal cabinet or ministerial positions but has publicly agreed, through a formal written agreement or a widely recognized, explicitly stated political deal, to support the government on key votes (e.g., votes of confidence, budget/finance bills) without formally joining the cabinet or government, counts only when expressly specified in the market’s party description. These individual-party descriptions do not specify such an arrangement, so confidence and supply without a qualifying ministerial position does not count. If, following the election, a caretaker or interim government is appointed temporarily before the formal government formation, this caretaker period does not count for determining a given party’s status.

Official rule text

General elections to elect all 93 members of the Legislative Assembly of British Columbia are scheduled to take place on October 24, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Courtenay-Comox British Columbia Legislative Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections BC (https://elections.bc.ca/).