Prices for Ontario Liberal Party Leadership Election 2026 on Polymarket and Kalshi, side by side. A price of 41¢ means traders on that platform price the outcome at about 41%. It is a market price, not a forecast by PolyKal.
Independent research, not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Not trading advice. PolyKal stops updating prices before the first polls open and does not report election results.
| Option | PPolymarket | KKalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Navdeep Bains | 37.5¢ | 38.5¢ | 1.0 pts |
| Stephanie Bowman | 4.9¢ | 3.5¢ | 1.4 pts |
| Lee Fairclough | 58.0¢ | 52.5¢ | 5.5 pts |
| Dylan Marando | 2.7¢ | 4.5¢ | 1.8 pts |
| Option | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Eric Lombardi | Polymarket | 0.1¢ |
| Other | Polymarket | — |
Listed on one platform only, so no gap is shown.
Official rule text
The 2026 Ontario Liberal Party leadership election is currently scheduled to conclude on November 21, 2026, with voting held from November 9 to November 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next leader of the Ontario Liberal Party as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder leaders appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Ontario Liberal Party.
Official rule text (Kalshi lists one market per option with the same wording; shown here for the Navdeep Bains market)
If Navdeep Bains wins the 2026 Ontario Liberal Party leadership election, then the market resolves to Yes.
PolyKal stops updating prices before the first polls open and does not report election results. Prices use the same method as the Midterms pages: Polymarket shows the market's displayed Yes price. Kalshi shows the midpoint of the highest Yes bid and the lowest Yes ask when they are within 8¢ of each other, and otherwise the highest Yes bid. Options with no Yes bid show —.
Available from 16 October 2026.
Available from 24 November 2026. Bid, ask, spread, order book depth and open interest for each option.
Available from 24 November 2026. Notes on large price moves, with the facts reported in the same period.
Available from 20 October 2026. One row per option, per day, Polymarket prices only (CSV).
Each platform resolves its market on the official result named in its own rules. The rule text is quoted on this page.
The two platforms have different rules for what counts as winning, different fees, different users and different amounts of money in each market.
Options listed on both Polymarket and Kalshi are compared side by side, in alphabetical order. Options listed on only one platform are shown separately, without a gap figure. The list follows the markets, not an official candidate list.
No. PolyKal stops updating prices before the first polls open and keeps the last pre-election prices as a snapshot. It does not report election results.
Every 15 minutes until prices stop updating before the vote.
Prices for Ontario Liberal Party Leadership Election 2026 on Polymarket and Kalshi, side by side. A price of 41¢ means traders on that platform price the outcome at about 41%. It is a market price, not a forecast by PolyKal.
Independent research, not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Not trading advice. PolyKal stops updating prices before the first polls open and does not report election results.
| Option | PPolymarket | KKalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Navdeep Bains | 37.5¢ | 38.5¢ | 1.0 pts |
| Stephanie Bowman | 4.9¢ | 3.5¢ | 1.4 pts |
| Lee Fairclough | 58.0¢ | 52.5¢ | 5.5 pts |
| Dylan Marando | 2.7¢ | 4.5¢ | 1.8 pts |
| Option | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Eric Lombardi | Polymarket | 0.1¢ |
| Other | Polymarket | — |
Listed on one platform only, so no gap is shown.
Official rule text
The 2026 Ontario Liberal Party leadership election is currently scheduled to conclude on November 21, 2026, with voting held from November 9 to November 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next leader of the Ontario Liberal Party as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder leaders appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Ontario Liberal Party.
Official rule text (Kalshi lists one market per option with the same wording; shown here for the Navdeep Bains market)
If Navdeep Bains wins the 2026 Ontario Liberal Party leadership election, then the market resolves to Yes.
PolyKal stops updating prices before the first polls open and does not report election results. Prices use the same method as the Midterms pages: Polymarket shows the market's displayed Yes price. Kalshi shows the midpoint of the highest Yes bid and the lowest Yes ask when they are within 8¢ of each other, and otherwise the highest Yes bid. Options with no Yes bid show —.
Available from 16 October 2026.
Available from 24 November 2026. Bid, ask, spread, order book depth and open interest for each option.
Available from 24 November 2026. Notes on large price moves, with the facts reported in the same period.
Available from 20 October 2026. One row per option, per day, Polymarket prices only (CSV).
Each platform resolves its market on the official result named in its own rules. The rule text is quoted on this page.
The two platforms have different rules for what counts as winning, different fees, different users and different amounts of money in each market.
Options listed on both Polymarket and Kalshi are compared side by side, in alphabetical order. Options listed on only one platform are shown separately, without a gap figure. The list follows the markets, not an official candidate list.
No. PolyKal stops updating prices before the first polls open and keeps the last pre-election prices as a snapshot. It does not report election results.
Every 15 minutes until prices stop updating before the vote.