Spain General Election 2026: Polymarket vs Kalshi Prices

Official rule text

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must receive a vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Official rule text

Legislative elections to elect the 350 members of the Congress of Deputies of Spain are scheduled to take place on November 29, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Congress of Deputies of Spain as a result of this election. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by November 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election, counted according to the attribution rules below. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received nationwide by each party, including votes attributed to its regional designations, with higher vote totals ranking higher. Votes attributed to PSC will count toward PSOE. Votes cast for a joint coalition list will not count toward an individual constituent party for this tie-break, even where elected candidates from that list count toward the party’s seat total. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. Seats will be counted where they are attributed to the specified party. If a listed party contests the election under a regional designation, all seats and votes attributed to that designation will count toward the listed party. For example, the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC) will be treated as a regional designation of PSOE. If a listed party contests as part of a coalition, only seats won by candidates who were members of the listed party on election day will count toward that party. Except as provided above, seats attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent changes in party affiliation or parliamentary-group membership. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Spanish Ministry of the Interior (https://infoelectoral.interior.gob.es/).

Official rule text (Kalshi lists one market per option with the same wording; shown here for the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party market)

If the winner of the next Spanish general election is Spanish Socialist Workers' Party, then the market resolves to Yes. For parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the same number of seats, the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No; if both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No. This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details. Clarification (10/06/26): For purposes of this Contract, seats won by the Socialists’ Party of Catalonia (PSC-PSOE) count toward the Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE).

Official rule text (Kalshi lists one market per option with the same wording; shown here for the At least 22,000,000 market)

If at least 22,000,000 valid and null ballots are cast in the November 29, 2026 Spanish general election for the Congress of Deputies, then the market resolves to Yes. The count is the number of voters (votantes) for the Congress of Deputies: valid votes, including blank votes, plus null votes; registered voters, abstentions and Senate ballots do not count. If the Junta Electoral Central has not published national results by the Expiration Date, the count is the provincial electoral boards' general-scrutiny total, which includes votes from Spaniards resident abroad (CERA). The Ministry of the Interior's provisional count, which excludes CERA votes, is used only if the general scrutiny has not been completed in every province by the Expiration Date. Subject to the contract’s Fully-Conducted Elections and Accelerated Resolution Upon Designated Media Source Declarations provisions, the vote count refers to the officially certified results from the relevant election authority. Provisional, absentee, early, mail-in, or electronic ballots are included only if reflected in the official certification. The contract resolves based on officially certified results regardless of ongoing appeals. Outside those two contract provisions, preliminary counts, exit polls, projections, or uncertified results do not qualify. If the election is postponed but held within one year of the originally scheduled date, the contract remains valid; if postponed beyond one year or canceled before voting is fully conducted, all contracts resolve to No.

Official rule text (Kalshi lists one market per option with the same wording; shown here for the At least 28% market)

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by the People's Party in the 2026 Spanish general election is 28% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. The percentage is the share of the vote received by the People's Party in the election to the Congress of Deputies. It is calculated as (total votes received by the specified person/party ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100, rounded to the specified decimal places. Resolution uses the official results published by the Spanish Ministry of the Interior as proclaimed by the Junta Electoral Central, NOT the provisional count on election night Only the election to the Congress of Deputies counts. Votes cast in the Senate election held the same day do NOT count Invalid ballots are excluded from the denominator. Blank ballots are valid votes under Spanish electoral law and are included in the denominator, as in the official percentages Votes for the People's Party include votes for any coalition or regional list the Ministry of the Interior aggregates under the People's Party in its national results

Official rule text (Kalshi lists one market per option with the same wording; shown here for the People's Party market)

If a coalition that includes the People's Party make up the next elected ruling government of Spain before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. A party is considered to be part of government if one or more of its representatives hold at least one ministerial or cabinet-level position (including junior ministers or equivalent executive roles, if applicable) in the new government. This evaluation shall occur at the first official, stable formation of the government (i.e., once the legislative process for forming a government is complete and the head of state appoints ministers under normal non-caretaker circumstances). Additionally, A “confidence and supply arrangement” (or any analogous agreement), where a party does not hold formal cabinet or ministerial positions but has publicly agreed, through a formal written agreement or a widely recognized, explicitly stated political deal, to support the government on key votes (e.g., votes of confidence, budget/finance bills) without formally joining the cabinet or government, may be included in the Payout Criterion if specified in parties (e.g. parties could take the form of “The Conservative Party and the Liberal Party” as well as “The Conservative Party with the support of the Greens”). If, following the election, a caretaker or interim government is appointed temporarily before the formal government formation, this caretaker period does not count for determining a given party's status. Every market on this event names a single party or electoral coalition on its own, so no market on this event specifies a confidence and supply arrangement. What that means here: A party whose representatives hold at least one ministerial or cabinet-level position resolves YES. In Spain, a minister (ministro or ministra) or a secretary of state (secretario or secretaria de Estado) appointed by Royal Decree holds a qualifying position A party that only supports the government from outside it, under a confidence and supply or investiture-support agreement, and holds no ministerial or cabinet-level position, does NOT resolve Yes Advisers and cabinet staff are NOT ministerial or cabinet-level positions Holding seats in the Cortes Generales is neither required nor sufficient The government evaluated is the first government formed following the Spanish general election of November 29, 2026. The outgoing government that remains in office until that government is appointed is a caretaker government and does not count. Frente Amplio is the electoral coalition of Movimiento Sumar, Izquierda Unida, Más Madrid and Comuns; the Frente Amplio market resolves Yes if a qualifying officeholder is a member of any party that submitted the Frente Amplio list, and that officeholder also counts toward their own party's market where one is listed. Otherwise, each officeholder is attributed to the party of which that officeholder is a member, as recorded in official government sources or, if those are silent, in a formal coalition agreement; a minister with no party affiliation does not count toward any market. If no candidate is invested as Prime Minister within the period set by Article 99 of the Spanish Constitution and the Cortes are dissolved for a further election before any government is formed, the first official, stable formation of a government following that further election governs resolution. Additional clarification(s): Dissolution, absorption, or merger: If a party named in a market dissolves, is absorbed into, or merges with one or more other parties to form a new and distinct political party or organization prior to the relevant government formation, the originally named party shall not be considered part of government merely because its former politicians, officeholders, or assets have moved to, or been absorbed by, the new party. The resulting party is not treated as equivalent to the originally named party for purposes of this Contract, unless the circumstances instead satisfy the legal name change standard below, in which case that standard governs. Legal name change: If a party named in a market undergoes a legal name change or rebranding but remains the same underlying legal political organization (i.e., the same legal registration, organizational continuity, and party structure persist, notwithstanding the new name), the renamed party continues to count as the same party named in that market.

Official rule text (Kalshi lists one market per option with the same wording; shown here for the People's Party market)

If the People's Party finishes in 2nd place in the 2026 Spanish general election according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes. Ranking is determined by the specified counting method. For proportional representation, rank follows the electoral authority's final seat allocation order. The party awarded the 2nd-highest number of Congress of Deputies seats in the Junta Electoral Central's final, certified general scrutiny (escrutinio general) resolves YES; every other listed party resolves NO Rank is NOT determined by national vote share. Where seat rank and vote-share rank differ, the certified seat allocation governs Resolution follows the final certified result, not the provisional count published on election night Only the election to the Congress of Deputies counts. Senate seats do NOT count Seats won by a party's regional federation or joint list that runs under its name count toward that party (for example, seats won by the Socialists' Party of Catalonia, PSC-PSOE, count toward the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party) If a party not listed on this event is awarded the 2nd-highest number of seats, every market on this event resolves NO In case of exact ties, markets resolve proportionally (1/number of tied entities). Write-in candidates achieving the specified rank resolve all named candidate markets to NO unless a specific "Write-in" or "Other" option exists. Candidates who withdraw or are disqualified after the filing deadline but remain on the ballot are ranked based on seats awarded.

Official rule text (Kalshi lists one market per option with the same wording; shown here for the At least 21% market)

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by PSOE in the 2026 Spanish general election is 21% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. The percentage is the share of the vote received by PSOE in the election to the Congress of Deputies. It is calculated as (total votes received by the specified person/party ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100, rounded to the specified decimal places. Resolution uses the official results published by the Spanish Ministry of the Interior as proclaimed by the Junta Electoral Central, NOT the provisional count on election night Only the election to the Congress of Deputies counts. Votes cast in the Senate election held the same day do NOT count Invalid ballots are excluded from the denominator. Blank ballots are valid votes under Spanish electoral law and are included in the denominator, as in the official percentages Votes for PSOE include votes for the Socialists' Party of Catalonia (PSC-PSOE) and any other list the Ministry of the Interior aggregates under PSOE in its national results

Official rule text (Kalshi lists one market per option with the same wording; shown here for the Alberto Núñez Feijóo market)

If Alberto Núñez Feijóo becomes Prime Minister of Spain as a result of government formation following the next Spanish general election and meets all constitutional requirements before Aug 22, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves to the first person who, as a result of government formation following the election, is formally appointed, sworn in, or invested as Prime Minister according to the country's constitutional procedures, commands the confidence of the parliament/legislature, and exercises the full powers of the office (not serving in a caretaker/acting capacity from the previous government). If no government forms by Aug 22, 2028, the Contract resolves to "No one" if that is an option and No for all other strikes. If new elections are called before government formation, the Contract resolves to "No one" immediately and No for all other strikes.

Official rule text (Kalshi lists one market per option with the same wording; shown here for the People's Party, 0-3% market)

If the margin of victory for the People's Party in the 2026 Spanish general election is within 0% to 3%, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory is the share of valid votes received by the party named in the market minus the share received by the party that finishes second if the named party finishes first, or minus the share of the party that finishes first if the named party does not. If the named party finishes first, the margin will be positive; if it does not, the margin will be negative; if it ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. Vote shares are the nationwide percentages of valid votes (which in Spain include blank ballots) in the official Congress of Deputies results published by the Ministerio del Interior, under which votes for a party's regional affiliate lists (for example, PSC-PSOE for PSOE) count toward that party. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 3-6% and 6-9%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 3-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-9% range.

Official rule text (Kalshi lists one market per option with the same wording; shown here for the People's Party market)

If the People's Party finishes in 3rd place in the 2026 Spanish general election according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes. Ranking is determined by the specified counting method. For proportional representation, rank follows the electoral authority's final seat allocation order. The party awarded the 3rd-highest number of Congress of Deputies seats in the Junta Electoral Central's final, certified general scrutiny (escrutinio general) resolves YES; every other listed party resolves NO Rank is NOT determined by national vote share. Where seat rank and vote-share rank differ, the certified seat allocation governs Resolution follows the final certified result, not the provisional count published on election night Only the election to the Congress of Deputies counts. Senate seats do NOT count Seats won by a party's regional federation or joint list that runs under its name count toward that party (for example, seats won by the Socialists' Party of Catalonia, PSC-PSOE, count toward the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party) If a party not listed on this event is awarded the 3rd-highest number of seats, every market on this event resolves NO In case of exact ties, markets resolve proportionally (1/number of tied entities). Write-in candidates achieving the specified rank resolve all named candidate markets to NO unless a specific "Write-in" or "Other" option exists. Candidates who withdraw or are disqualified after the filing deadline but remain on the ballot are ranked based on seats awarded.