US Presidential Election 2028: Polymarket vs Kalshi Prices

Official rule text

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Official rule text (Kalshi lists one market per option with the same wording; shown here for the Hunter Biden market)

If Hunter Biden wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Official rule text

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

Official rule text (Kalshi lists one market per option with the same wording; shown here for the Gavin Newsom market)

If Gavin Newsom is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Official rule text

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Official rule text (Kalshi lists one market per option with the same wording; shown here for the Thomas Massie market)

If Thomas Massie wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Official rule text

The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

Official rule text (Kalshi lists one market per option with the same wording; shown here for the Democratic party market)

If a representative of the Democratic party is inaugurated as President for the term beginning January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Official rule text (Kalshi lists one market per option with the same wording; shown here for the Gavin Newsom v. JD Vance market)

If Gavin Newsom (D) and JD Vance (R) are the nominees for the 2028 presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: Democratic Nominee (PRESNOM), Republican Nominee (PRESNOM). All conditions must be satisfied for the 2028 presidential election.

Official rule text

This market will resolve according to the first individual to be formally nominated by the Democratic Party for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 Presidential election cycle who accepts the nomination. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Official rule text (Kalshi lists one market per option with the same wording; shown here for the Gavin Newsom market)

If Gavin Newsom accepts the nomination for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Official rule text

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future. A qualifying announcement must be explicit and unambiguous. Conditional statements, or statements that are clearly sarcastic, made in jest, or immediately clarified as not being genuine will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Official rule text (Kalshi lists one market per option with the same wording; shown here for the Cory Booker market)

If Cory Booker announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Official rule text (Kalshi lists one market per option with the same wording; shown here for the J.D. Vance market)

If J.D. Vance announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Official rule text

This market will resolve according to the first individual that Donald Trump endorses for President of the United States in the 2028 United States Presidential Election. An endorsement is defined as a statement by Donald Trump that i) is made publicly (e.g., through a press release, an on-the-record interview, a speech, a campaign event, a post from a verified account on social media); ii) explicitly and unambiguously expresses unique support for an individual as a candidate for President of the United States in the 2028 United States Presidential election; and iii) is characterized by a consensus of credible reporting as an official endorsement by Donald Trump of the individual for President in the 2028 United States presidential election. An endorsement of an individual for the Republican Party’s nomination to the 2028 United States Presidential election will qualify. Endorsements of a candidate for the Democratic Party's nomination without also endorsing that candidate for President in the general election will not qualify. The following will not be considered endorsements: positive or favorable comments about a candidate without a clear public statement of direct support; conditional statements giving support only if certain conditions are met; statements equally expressing support for multiple candidates (e.g., “I support Marco and J.D.”); statements expressing opposition to a candidate without endorsing any candidate; private or non-public statements; and statements that are clearly sarcastic, made in jest, or immediately clarified as not reflecting genuine support. An endorsement of a ticket comprising a presidential candidate and a vice-presidential candidate constitutes a qualifying endorsement only of the individual endorsed for President. If the endorsement is of a ticket with undefined presidential and vice-presidential roles, or the roles on an endorsed ticket cannot be determined by the statement itself or a consensus of credible reporting, no qualifying endorsement will be deemed to have occurred. If Donald Trump issues multiple concurrent statements meeting this standard, directed at different individuals, this will not constitute a qualifying endorsement and this market will remain open and resolve based on the first standalone qualifying endorsement issued. Endorsements will be considered to be issued concurrently only if they are issued in the same written statement (e.g., a public social media post), or in a singular public speaking event (e.g., a press conference, a speech). Endorsements via social media count only from verified accounts controlled by Donald Trump. Likes, reposts, or shares alone do not constitute a qualifying endorsement. If Donald Trump officially files his candidacy for the 2028 United States Presidential election before issuing a qualifying endorsement, this market will resolve to “Donald Trump.” Statements alone will not be sufficient to resolve this market to “Donald Trump.” Once a qualifying endorsement has occurred, subsequent retractions, rescissions, or endorsements of other individuals will not affect the determination of the first individual endorsed. If Donald Trump does not issue any qualifying endorsements, or file his own candidacy, by November 6, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution sources for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump and a consensus of credible reporting.

Official rule text

This market will resolve according to the first individual to be formally nominated by the Republican Party for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 presidential election cycle who accepts the nomination. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official GOP sources, including https://www.gop.com. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Official rule text (Kalshi lists one market per option with the same wording; shown here for the J.D. Vance market)

If J.D. Vance accepts the nomination for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Official rule text (Kalshi lists one market per option with the same wording; shown here for the Gavin Newsom defeats Marco Rubio market)

If Gavin Newsom defeats Marco Rubio in the 2028 presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: Democratic Nominee (PRESNOM), Republican Nominee (PRESNOM), Presidential Winner (PRESPERSON). All conditions must be satisfied the 2028 presidential election.

Official rule text (Kalshi lists one market per option with the same wording; shown here for the JD Vance and Marco Rubio market)

If the Republican presidential nominee is JD Vance AND the Republican vice presidential nominee is Marco Rubio in the 2028 presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. Order matters: the first person listed is the presidential nominee and the second is the vice presidential nominee. This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: Presidential Nominee (PRESNOM), Vice Presidential Nominee (VPRESNOM). The presidential nominee (listed first) is resolved under PRESNOM and the vice presidential nominee (listed second) is resolved under VPRESNOM.

Official rule text (Kalshi lists one market per option with the same wording; shown here for the Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez market)

If Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez wins the 2028 United States vice presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. The winner is the person elected Vice President of the United States for the term beginning in 2029: the candidate receiving a majority of electoral votes for Vice President as counted by Congress, or the person chosen by the Senate under the Twelfth Amendment if no candidate receives a majority. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Official rule text (Kalshi lists one market per option with the same wording; shown here for the No one market)

If Donald Trump publicly endorses no one in the 2028 presidential election before Mar 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. An "endorsement" requires: A clear, affirmative statement of support for candidate's election The statement must be public (not private communications) The endorsement must specifically reference the 2028 presidential election or be clearly in context of the 2028 presidential election The endorsement must come directly from Donald Trump or through official channels The following scenarios would resolve to YES: Donald Trump states "I endorse candidate for [office]" Donald Trump states "I support candidate" with clear reference to the 2028 presidential election Donald Trump states "I'm voting for candidate" publicly Donald Trump states "candidate has my full support" for the 2028 presidential election Donald Trump appears at campaign events specifically to endorse Donald Trump releases official endorsement through their organization Donald Trump allows their name/image to be used in candidate's campaign materials Statements of obvious sarcasm (or which are immediately followed by clarifications that Donald Trump is joking) are NOT encompassed by the Payout Criterion. The Contract shall resolve immediately upon confirmation of the first qualifying endorsement in the specified race. If multiple candidates are listed for a listed race and exactly one is endorsed, that candidate's strike resolves "Yes" at $1.00 and all other named-candidate strikes resolve "No." If multiple are endorsed, each endorsed candidate's strike resolves "Yes" at a value of ($1.00 / N) rounded down to the nearest $0.01. If no endorsement occurs before expiration, the "No one" strike resolves "Yes" at $1.00 and all named-candidate strikes resolve "No."

Official rule text (Kalshi lists one market per option with the same wording; shown here for the Before 2028 market)

If a member of the Donald J. Trump family (including him personally) is nominated as the 2028 Republican presidential candidate, then the market resolves to Yes.

Official rule text (Kalshi lists one market per option with the same wording; shown here for the DeAndre Way market)

If DeAndre Way has announced that they will run for President of the United States in 2028 after Issuance and before Nov 7, 2028, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes. The person must publicly announce their campaign for it to be reported by a Source Agency. Merely filing campaign paperwork with the Federal Election Commission or similar entity is insufficient without a public announcement. Exploratory committees or statements of interest without formal campaign announcements do not qualify. The announcement must come from the person themselves or their official campaign, not from speculation or third-party sources. A campaign for the Democratic or Republican nomination, for a third party's nomination, or as an independent all resolve YES. A person who announces and later withdraws still resolves YES. An announcement made before Issuance does NOT resolve Yes.

Official rule text

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the first individual that Donald Trump endorses for President of the United States in the 2028 United States Presidential Election wins the 2028 United States Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The following rules govern the determination of the first individual that Donald Trump endorses for President of the United States in the 2028 United States Presidential Election: An endorsement is defined as a statement by Donald Trump that i) is made publicly (e.g., through a press release, an on-the-record interview, a speech, a campaign event, a post from a verified account on social media); ii) explicitly and unambiguously expresses unique support for an individual as a candidate for President of the United States in the 2028 United States Presidential Election; and iii) is characterized by a consensus of credible reporting as an official endorsement by Donald Trump of the individual for President in the 2028 United States Presidential Election. An endorsement of an individual for the Republican Party’s nomination in the 2028 United States Presidential Election will qualify as an endorsement for the 2028 United States Presidential Election. Endorsements of a candidate for the Democratic Party's nomination without also endorsing that candidate for President in the general election will not qualify. The following will not be considered endorsements: positive or favorable comments about a candidate without a clear public statement of direct support; conditional statements giving support only if certain conditions are met; statements equally expressing support for multiple candidates (e.g., “I support Marco and J.D.”); statements expressing opposition to a candidate without endorsing any candidate; private or non-public statements; and statements that are clearly sarcastic, made in jest, or immediately clarified as not reflecting genuine support. An endorsement of a ticket comprising a presidential candidate and a vice-presidential candidate constitutes a qualifying endorsement only of the individual endorsed for President. If the endorsement is of a ticket with undefined presidential and vice-presidential roles, or the roles on an endorsed ticket cannot be determined by the statement itself or a consensus of credible reporting, no qualifying endorsement will be deemed to have occurred. If Donald Trump issues multiple concurrent statements meeting this standard, directed at different individuals, this will not constitute a qualifying endorsement and this market will remain open and resolve based on the first standalone qualifying endorsement issued. Endorsements will be considered to be issued concurrently only if they are issued in the same written statement (e.g., a public social media post), or in a singular public speaking event (e.g., a press conference, a speech). Endorsements via social media count only from verified accounts controlled by Donald Trump. Likes, reposts, or shares alone do not constitute a qualifying endorsement. If Donald Trump officially files his candidacy for the 2028 United States Presidential Election before issuing a qualifying endorsement, he will be considered to have endorsed himself. Statements alone will not be sufficient to constitute Trump’s endorsement of himself. Once a qualifying endorsement has occurred, subsequent retractions, rescissions, or endorsements of other individuals will not affect the determination of the first individual endorsed. If Donald Trump does not issue any qualifying endorsements, or file his own candidacy, by November 6, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution sources for Trump’s endorsement will be official statements from Donald Trump and a consensus of credible reporting. The resolution sources for the winner of the 2028 United States Presidential Election are the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. All three sources must call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

Official rule text

This market will resolve according to the age of the individual who formally wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. The individual's age will be calculated on the day on which they accept the nomination. A person will be considered to have advanced from one age to the next immediately upon the beginning of the calendar day of their day of birth. In the event that no individual has won and accepted such nomination by November 7, 2028, this market will resolve to the lowest listed bracket. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources and official public records; however, a consensus of credible sources may suffice.

Official rule text (Kalshi lists one market per option with the same wording; shown here for the Gavin Newsom and Gretchen Whitmer market)

If the Democratic presidential nominee is Gavin Newsom AND the Democratic vice presidential nominee is Gretchen Whitmer in the 2028 presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. Order matters: the first person listed is the presidential nominee and the second is the vice presidential nominee. This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: Presidential Nominee (PRESNOM), Vice Presidential Nominee (VPRESNOM). The presidential nominee (listed first) is resolved under PRESNOM and the vice presidential nominee (listed second) is resolved under VPRESNOM.

Official rule text (Kalshi lists one market per option with the same wording; shown here for the In 2028 market)

If the 2028 U.S. presidential election occurs, then the market resolves to Yes. Please see full rules for details.

Official rule text

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the first individual that Donald Trump endorses for President of the United States in the 2028 United States Presidential Election by the day before the first Republican presidential primary or caucus for the 2028 cycle, 11:59 PM ET, wins and accepts the Republican Party’s nomination to the 2028 United States Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any replacement of the Republican Party’s nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market. The following rules govern the determination of the first individual that Donald Trump endorses for President of the United States in the 2028 United States Presidential Election: An endorsement is defined as a statement by Donald Trump that i) is made publicly (e.g., through a press release, an on-the-record interview, a speech, a campaign event, a post from a verified account on social media); ii) explicitly and unambiguously expresses unique support for an individual as a candidate for President of the United States in the 2028 United States Presidential Election; and iii) is characterized by a consensus of credible reporting as an official endorsement by Donald Trump of the individual for President in the 2028 United States Presidential Election. An endorsement of an individual for the Republican Party’s nomination to the 2028 United States Presidential Election will qualify as an endorsement for the 2028 United States Presidential Election. Endorsements of a candidate for the Democratic Party's nomination without also endorsing that candidate for President in the general election will not qualify. The following will not be considered endorsements: positive or favorable comments about a candidate without a clear public statement of direct support; conditional statements giving support only if certain conditions are met; statements equally expressing support for multiple candidates (e.g., “I support Marco and J.D.”); statements expressing opposition to a candidate without endorsing any candidate; private or non-public statements; and statements that are clearly sarcastic, made in jest, or immediately clarified as not reflecting genuine support. An endorsement of a ticket comprising a presidential candidate and a vice-presidential candidate constitutes a qualifying endorsement only of the individual endorsed for President. If the endorsement is of a ticket with undefined presidential and vice-presidential roles, or the roles on an endorsed ticket cannot be determined by the statement itself or a consensus of credible reporting, no qualifying endorsement will be deemed to have occurred. If Donald Trump issues multiple concurrent statements meeting this standard, directed at different individuals, this will not constitute a qualifying endorsement and this market will remain open and resolve based on the first standalone qualifying endorsement issued. Endorsements will be considered to be issued concurrently only if they are issued in the same written statement (e.g., a public social media post), or in a singular public speaking event (e.g., a press conference, a speech). Endorsements via social media count only from verified accounts controlled by Donald Trump. Likes, reposts, or shares alone do not constitute a qualifying endorsement. If Donald Trump officially files his candidacy for the 2028 United States Presidential Election before issuing a qualifying endorsement, he will be considered to have endorsed himself. Statements alone will not be sufficient to constitute Trump’s endorsement of himself. Once a qualifying endorsement has occurred, subsequent retractions, rescissions, or endorsements of other individuals will not affect the determination of the first individual endorsed. If Donald Trump does not issue any qualifying endorsements, or file his own candidacy, by the day before the first Republican presidential primary or caucus for the 2028 cycle, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution sources for Trump’s endorsement will be official statements from Donald Trump and a consensus of credible reporting. The resolution sources for the 2028 Republican Party nominee will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Official rule text

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the individual that wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president is a woman. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Official rule text

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the individual that wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president is a woman. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Official rule text (Kalshi lists one market per option with the same wording; shown here for the Jill Stein market)

If Jill Stein wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Green party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Official rule text (Kalshi lists one market per option with the same wording; shown here for the Chase Oliver market)

If Chase Oliver wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Libertarian party, then the market resolves to Yes.

Official rule text (Kalshi lists one market per option with the same wording; shown here for the Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez market)

If the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) national organization publicly endorses Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in the 2028 presidential election, including the Democratic primaries before Mar 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. An endorsement requires a clear, affirmative statement of support for the candidate's election in the 2028 presidential election, including the Democratic primaries, made after Issuance and before Mar 1, 2028. The statement must be public (not private communications) and must specifically reference that race or be clearly in context of it. The endorsement must come directly from DSA or through its official channels. The following scenarios would resolve to YES: DSA states that it endorses the candidate for president DSA states that it supports the candidate, with clear reference to the race DSA releases an official endorsement through its national channels DSA allows its name or logo to be used in the candidate's campaign materials Positive comments without explicit support, or policy endorsements without a candidate endorsement, do not qualify. Ranking a candidate anything other than first in a ranked-choice process does not qualify, and publication of poll or ranked-choice results, whether national or chapter-level, is not itself an endorsement; only the resulting decision of the national organization qualifies. Social media endorsements count only from verified accounts, and likes or retweets alone do not constitute endorsement. Quote tweets with additional supportive commentary do count. Statements of obvious sarcasm, or which are immediately followed by clarifications that DSA is joking, are not encompassed by the Payout Criterion. Only the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) national organization satisfies the Payout Criterion, acting through its national governing bodies or processes and announced through DSA's national channels. Qualifying decisions include a resolution or vote of the DSA National Convention, a decision of the National Political Committee, and a binding vote of the national membership. An endorsement, chapter poll result, or statement of support from a local or state DSA chapter, caucus, or working group does not qualify unless the national organization adopts it. A statement that a candidate has or will have DSA's endorsement qualifies if the only condition attached is that the candidate enter or remain in the race. A statement conditioned on anything else, such as winning a primary or adopting a policy position, does not. The Contract shall resolve immediately upon confirmation of the first qualifying endorsement. If DSA endorses more than one listed candidate, each endorsed candidate's strike resolves Yes at a value of ($1.00 / N) rounded down to the nearest $0.01, and all non-endorsed named-candidate strikes resolve No. If no qualifying endorsement occurs before Mar 1, 2028, the "No one" strike resolves Yes and every named-candidate strike resolves No. An endorsement of a candidate who is not listed resolves every market No. If a candidate withdraws from, suspends their campaign for, ceases to be a candidate in, declines to enter, or loses the primary or general election for the race before a qualifying endorsement of that candidate is confirmed, their strike may resolve to No in the sole discretion of the Exchange.

Official rule text (Kalshi lists one market per option with the same wording; shown here for the Before November 4, 2028 market)

If Bernie Sanders runs for President of The United States before Nov 4, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Note: FEC filings alone do not resolve this market to Yes.

Official rule text (Kalshi lists one market per option with the same wording; shown here for the Yes market)

If Joe Manchin has announced that he will run for President of the United States in 2028 before Mar 1, 2028, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes. The person must publicly announce their campaign for it to be reported by a Source Agency. Merely filing campaign paperwork with the Federal Election Commission or similar entity is insufficient without a public announcement. The announcement must be for the specific office and election year listed. Exploratory committees or statements of interest without formal campaign announcements do not qualify. Running for a party's nomination to contest the office counts as running for that office. The announcement must come from the person themselves or their official campaign, not from speculation or third-party sources.

Official rule text (Kalshi lists one market per option with the same wording; shown here for the a party founded by Elon Musk market)

If a party founded by Elon Musk contests the 2028 U.S. presidential election by having at least one candidate officially on the ballot before Sep 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. A party "contests" an election if they have at least one candidate on the official ballot under the party name, participate in a formal coalition on the ballot, or have officially endorsed candidates with clear party affiliation. The party does NOT contest if they only endorse other parties' candidates, announce a boycott, fail to meet ballot access requirements, or only challenge results after voting without having participated. For multi-round elections, appearing on any round's ballot counts. For federal systems, contesting in any state/province counts for the federal election. If the election is postponed but occurs within one year, the contract remains valid. If cancelled or not held within one year, the market resolves to No.