Polymarket 與 Kalshi 如何為 2026 年美國眾議院控制權定價：價格、費用與結算規則並列比較。純數據呈現，不構成交易建議。
PolyKal Research · 發布於 2026 年 10 月 5 日 · 資料截至 2026-10-12 22:28 ET · 獨立研究，與 Polymarket、Kalshi 皆無關聯。非投資建議。 · 譯自英文原文 · 已自動核對
截至 2026 年 10 月 12 日，在 Polymarket 上，眾議院控制權最可能的結果是「民主黨」，機率 90.5%。
含費後來看，Polymarket 在「共和黨」上較便宜。
市場目前的看法是「民主黨」，機率 90.5%；哪個平台含費後比較便宜，要看是哪個結果（見上表）。若要追蹤11 月 3 日眾議院將由哪個政黨掌控，常見的觀察重點包括一般選票民調與眾議院整體普選票。本頁幫你看懂盤面、比較成本，但不會告訴你該選哪一邊。
價格採用與中期選舉專頁相同的方式計算：Polymarket 顯示市場上呈現的 Yes 價格。Kalshi 則在最佳 Yes 買價與賣價差距在 8¢ 以內時，顯示兩者的中間值；否則顯示最佳 Yes 買價。沒有 Yes 買價的結果會顯示 —。
兩個市場問的都是 2026 年期中選舉後哪個政黨掌控美國眾議院，但兩家平台的規則措辭不同。下方規則原文摘自各自平台，並以英文原文呈現。
以 2026 年選舉中贏得眾議院控制權的政黨結算——取得該院過半數表決席位者；若無政黨取得多數，則以首位當選議長所屬政黨為準。
平台官方規則原文，逐字引用：
This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States House of Representatives in the 2026 United States midterm election. A party wins control of the United States House of Representatives if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first elected Speaker of the House of the Congress that convenes after the 2026 midterm election is affiliated. The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chamber. All House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress are included. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
以所指政黨是否在 2026 年贏得眾議院控制權為結算依據；其規則允許依各家媒體判定的共識提前認定，否則以眾議院議長所屬政黨為準。
平台官方規則原文，逐字引用：
Democratic Party: If the Democratic Party has won control of the House in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Republican Party: If the Republican Party has won control of the House in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. This market may be determined early based on a consensus of media calls projecting control of the U.S. House. See full rules for details. Otherwise, victory will be determined by the party identification of the Speaker of the House on February 1, 2027.
規則原文已於 2026-10-05 對照各平台自家頁面核對。以英文原文呈現。
這是一個針對單一問題的市場：2026 年期中選舉後，哪個政黨將掌控美國聯邦眾議院。Polymarket 與 Kalshi 各自掛出民主黨與共和黨合約，每份合約的價格即解讀為該結果的機率。PolyKal 將兩個平台並列呈現。
兩家的措辭不同。Polymarket 以選舉中贏得眾議院控制權的政黨結算，採該院過半數表決席位；若無政黨取得多數，則以首位當選議長所屬政黨為準。Kalshi 以該政黨是否在 2026 年贏得眾議院控制權結算，可依各家媒體判定的共識提前認定，否則以議長所屬政黨為準。上方結算規則區塊顯示的是各平台的原文。
每個平台都有自己的交易者、訂單簿、費用與規則措辭，價格擷取的時間點也略有不同。PolyKal 也採用明確的取價基準：Polymarket 採顯示價格；Kalshi 則在買賣價差為 8 美分以內時取買賣價中間價（否則取最高買價）。小幅差異屬正常現象，以百分點呈現，並非訊號。
本頁資料約每 15 分鐘更新一次，資料來源為各平台的公開資料；頁面上的「Data as of」時間顯示這些數字是何时擷取的。這是快照，並非即時更新。
兩者皆非。PolyKal 是免費、只供閱讀的研究網站：沒有帳戶、不能交易，本站任何內容都不構成建議。我們不公布選舉結果，只呈現這兩個市場當時的定價；投票結束後，本頁面即停止更新，並顯示投票結束前的最後價格。
兩個平台的價格取自官方公開訂單簿。時間一律為 ET。
含手續費成本採用費用表中現行且註明日期的 taker 費率。若某個結果選項僅在單一平台交易，我們會顯示「無法比較」，而非留空。
PolyKal Research. “2026 眾議院控制權：Polymarket 與 Kalshi 的比較.” PolyKal Research, 2026 年 10 月 5 日. https://polykal.net/zh-Hant/topics/house-control-2026/（瀏覽日期：你瀏覽本頁的日期）。
Polymarket 與 Kalshi 如何為 2026 年美國眾議院控制權定價：價格、費用與結算規則並列比較。純數據呈現，不構成交易建議。
PolyKal Research · 發布於 2026 年 10 月 5 日 · 資料截至 2026-10-12 22:28 ET · 獨立研究，與 Polymarket、Kalshi 皆無關聯。非投資建議。 · 譯自英文原文 · 已自動核對
截至 2026 年 10 月 12 日，在 Polymarket 上，眾議院控制權最可能的結果是「民主黨」，機率 90.5%。
含費後來看，Polymarket 在「共和黨」上較便宜。
市場目前的看法是「民主黨」，機率 90.5%；哪個平台含費後比較便宜，要看是哪個結果（見上表）。若要追蹤11 月 3 日眾議院將由哪個政黨掌控，常見的觀察重點包括一般選票民調與眾議院整體普選票。本頁幫你看懂盤面、比較成本，但不會告訴你該選哪一邊。
價格採用與中期選舉專頁相同的方式計算：Polymarket 顯示市場上呈現的 Yes 價格。Kalshi 則在最佳 Yes 買價與賣價差距在 8¢ 以內時，顯示兩者的中間值；否則顯示最佳 Yes 買價。沒有 Yes 買價的結果會顯示 —。
兩個市場問的都是 2026 年期中選舉後哪個政黨掌控美國眾議院，但兩家平台的規則措辭不同。下方規則原文摘自各自平台，並以英文原文呈現。
以 2026 年選舉中贏得眾議院控制權的政黨結算——取得該院過半數表決席位者；若無政黨取得多數，則以首位當選議長所屬政黨為準。
平台官方規則原文，逐字引用：
This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States House of Representatives in the 2026 United States midterm election. A party wins control of the United States House of Representatives if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first elected Speaker of the House of the Congress that convenes after the 2026 midterm election is affiliated. The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chamber. All House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress are included. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
以所指政黨是否在 2026 年贏得眾議院控制權為結算依據；其規則允許依各家媒體判定的共識提前認定，否則以眾議院議長所屬政黨為準。
平台官方規則原文，逐字引用：
Democratic Party: If the Democratic Party has won control of the House in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Republican Party: If the Republican Party has won control of the House in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. This market may be determined early based on a consensus of media calls projecting control of the U.S. House. See full rules for details. Otherwise, victory will be determined by the party identification of the Speaker of the House on February 1, 2027.
規則原文已於 2026-10-05 對照各平台自家頁面核對。以英文原文呈現。
這是一個針對單一問題的市場：2026 年期中選舉後，哪個政黨將掌控美國聯邦眾議院。Polymarket 與 Kalshi 各自掛出民主黨與共和黨合約，每份合約的價格即解讀為該結果的機率。PolyKal 將兩個平台並列呈現。
兩家的措辭不同。Polymarket 以選舉中贏得眾議院控制權的政黨結算，採該院過半數表決席位；若無政黨取得多數，則以首位當選議長所屬政黨為準。Kalshi 以該政黨是否在 2026 年贏得眾議院控制權結算，可依各家媒體判定的共識提前認定，否則以議長所屬政黨為準。上方結算規則區塊顯示的是各平台的原文。
每個平台都有自己的交易者、訂單簿、費用與規則措辭，價格擷取的時間點也略有不同。PolyKal 也採用明確的取價基準：Polymarket 採顯示價格；Kalshi 則在買賣價差為 8 美分以內時取買賣價中間價（否則取最高買價）。小幅差異屬正常現象，以百分點呈現，並非訊號。
本頁資料約每 15 分鐘更新一次，資料來源為各平台的公開資料；頁面上的「Data as of」時間顯示這些數字是何时擷取的。這是快照，並非即時更新。
兩者皆非。PolyKal 是免費、只供閱讀的研究網站：沒有帳戶、不能交易，本站任何內容都不構成建議。我們不公布選舉結果，只呈現這兩個市場當時的定價；投票結束後，本頁面即停止更新，並顯示投票結束前的最後價格。
兩個平台的價格取自官方公開訂單簿。時間一律為 ET。
含手續費成本採用費用表中現行且註明日期的 taker 費率。若某個結果選項僅在單一平台交易，我們會顯示「無法比較」，而非留空。
PolyKal Research. “2026 眾議院控制權：Polymarket 與 Kalshi 的比較.” PolyKal Research, 2026 年 10 月 5 日. https://polykal.net/zh-Hant/topics/house-control-2026/（瀏覽日期：你瀏覽本頁的日期）。