Next UK General Election: Kalshi Prices and Market Rules

Official rule text (Kalshi lists one market per option with the same wording; shown here for the Your Party market)

If the Your Party party receives the most seats in the next UK general election, then the market resolves to Yes. If two parties tie in seat count, then the party with the highest percentage of the vote will resolve to Yes and the others will resolve to No.

Official rule text (Kalshi lists one market per option with the same wording; shown here for the Reform UK majority market)

If Reform UK, with Reform UK holding a majority of seats in the House of Commons exclusively make up the next elected ruling government of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. A party is considered part of government if one or more of its representatives hold at least one ministerial or cabinet-level position in the new government. This evaluation occurs at the first official, stable formation of the government once the legislative process is complete and the head of state appoints ministers under normal non-caretaker circumstances. Confidence and supply arrangements where a party supports the government without holding cabinet positions may be included if explicitly specified in the parties description. Caretaker or interim governments appointed temporarily before formal government formation do not count for determining party status. A sole 'minority' government designation (e.g. 'Party X minority') means the relevant party is the ruling government but does not have a confidence and supply agreement with any party or a majority of seats in the parliament (or equivalent legislature). If a parties description specifies support from one or more named parties, that support is exclusive to the named parties.