Prices for Nigel Farage announces departure as Reform UK leader on Kalshi. A price of 41¢ means traders on that platform price the outcome at about 41%. It is a market price, not a forecast by PolyKal.
Independent research, not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Not trading advice. PolyKal stops updating prices before the first polls open and does not report election results.
| Option | KKalshi |
|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 11.0¢ |
Only listed on Kalshi.
Official rule text (Kalshi lists one market per option with the same wording; shown here for the Before Jan 1, 2027 market)
If Nigel Farage leaves as Leader of Reform UK before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. This market resolves based on when the departure is publicly announced or officially communicated, regardless of the effective date. If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role. For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary and involuntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.
PolyKal stops updating prices before the first polls open and does not report election results. Prices use the same method as the Midterms pages: Polymarket shows the market's displayed Yes price. Kalshi shows the midpoint of the highest Yes bid and the lowest Yes ask when they are within 8¢ of each other, and otherwise the highest Yes bid. Options with no Yes bid show —.
Available from 16 October 2026.
Available from 24 November 2026. Bid, ask, spread, order book depth and open interest for each option.
Available from 24 November 2026. Notes on large price moves, with the facts reported in the same period.
Available from 20 October 2026. One row per option, per day, Polymarket prices only (CSV).
Each platform resolves its market on the official result named in its own rules. The rule text is quoted on this page.
No. This election is only listed on Kalshi right now, so the page shows Kalshi prices and rules without a cross-platform comparison.
Every priced option in the market is listed in alphabetical order. The list follows the market, not an official candidate list.
No. PolyKal stops updating prices before the first polls open and keeps the last pre-election prices as a snapshot. It does not report election results.
Every 15 minutes until prices stop updating before the vote.
Prices for Nigel Farage announces departure as Reform UK leader on Kalshi. A price of 41¢ means traders on that platform price the outcome at about 41%. It is a market price, not a forecast by PolyKal.
Independent research, not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Not trading advice. PolyKal stops updating prices before the first polls open and does not report election results.
| Option | KKalshi |
|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 11.0¢ |
Only listed on Kalshi.
Official rule text (Kalshi lists one market per option with the same wording; shown here for the Before Jan 1, 2027 market)
If Nigel Farage leaves as Leader of Reform UK before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. This market resolves based on when the departure is publicly announced or officially communicated, regardless of the effective date. If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role. For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary and involuntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.
PolyKal stops updating prices before the first polls open and does not report election results. Prices use the same method as the Midterms pages: Polymarket shows the market's displayed Yes price. Kalshi shows the midpoint of the highest Yes bid and the lowest Yes ask when they are within 8¢ of each other, and otherwise the highest Yes bid. Options with no Yes bid show —.
Available from 16 October 2026.
Available from 24 November 2026. Bid, ask, spread, order book depth and open interest for each option.
Available from 24 November 2026. Notes on large price moves, with the facts reported in the same period.
Available from 20 October 2026. One row per option, per day, Polymarket prices only (CSV).
Each platform resolves its market on the official result named in its own rules. The rule text is quoted on this page.
No. This election is only listed on Kalshi right now, so the page shows Kalshi prices and rules without a cross-platform comparison.
Every priced option in the market is listed in alphabetical order. The list follows the market, not an official candidate list.
No. PolyKal stops updating prices before the first polls open and keeps the last pre-election prices as a snapshot. It does not report election results.
Every 15 minutes until prices stop updating before the vote.