Where Polymarket and Kalshi disagree most on 2026 midterm race probabilities, ranked by gap size.
| Race | Verified | P Polymarket | K Kalshi | Gap | 24H change | 24H volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan Senate | Checked | 70.5% | 67.5% | 3.0 pts | P +1.0 · K +0.0 | P $34K · K 108K ct |
| Nevada Governor | Checked | 54.5% | 51.5% | 3.0 pts | P +1.0 · K +0.0 | P $1K · K 4K ct |
| Texas Governor | Checked | 79.4% | 81.5% | 2.1 pts | P +0.1 · K +1.0 | P $5K · K 104K ct |
| Alaska Governor | Auto-matched | 78.5% | 76.5% | 2.0 pts | P +0.0 · K +0.0 | P $30 · K 1K ct |
| Alaska Senate | Auto-matched | 72.5% | 74.5% | 2.0 pts | P +0.0 · K +0.5 | P $2K · K 5K ct |
| Arizona Governor | Checked | 88.5% | 86.5% | 2.0 pts | P +0.0 · K +0.0 | P $13K · K 17K ct |
| Georgia Governor | Checked | 53.5% | 55.5% | 2.0 pts | P +0.0 · K +0.0 | P $1K · K 11K ct |
| Maine Senate | Checked | 59.5% | 57.5% | 2.0 pts | P +1.0 · K +1.0 | P $2K · K 93K ct |
| Ohio Senate | Checked | 61.5% | 59.5% | 2.0 pts | P +0.0 · K +0.0 | P $13K · K 53K ct |
| Oregon Governor | Checked | 76.5% | 74.5% | 2.0 pts | P −1.0 · K −1.0 | P $4K · K 9K ct |
| Louisiana Senate | Auto-matched | 92.5% | 94.1% | 1.6 pts | P +0.0 · K −0.6 | P $1 · K 421 ct |
| Iowa Governor | Checked | 88.0% | 89.5% | 1.5 pts | P +1.5 · K +2.0 | P $17K · K 27K ct |
| Mississippi Senate | Auto-matched | 93.5% | 92.0% | 1.5 pts | P +0.0 · K +0.1 | P $1K · K 3K ct |
| Connecticut Governor | Auto-matched | 96.7% | 95.3% | 1.4 pts | P +0.1 · K −0.3 | P $67 · K 3K ct |
| Tennessee Senate | Auto-matched | 93.9% | 92.6% | 1.3 pts | P −0.1 · K +0.1 | P $988 · K 22K ct |
| Montana Senate | Checked | 91.5% | 92.6% | 1.1 pts | P +0.0 · K −0.8 | P $416 · K 4K ct |
| Florida Governor | Checked | 78.5% | 77.5% | 1.0 pts | P +0.0 · K +0.0 | P $4K · K 22K ct |
| Hawaii Governor | Auto-matched | 99.4% | 98.4% | 1.0 pts | P +1.0 · K +0.3 | P $337 · K 27 ct |
| Idaho Senate | Checked | 95.3% | 94.3% | 1.0 pts | P +0.1 · K +0.2 | P $512 · K 9K ct |
| Massachusetts Governor | Auto-matched | 95.7% | 94.7% | 1.0 pts | P −0.1 · K −0.2 | P $914 · K 62K ct |
| Minnesota Senate | Checked | 87.5% | 86.5% | 1.0 pts | P +0.0 · K +0.0 | P $1K · K 110K ct |
| Nebraska Senate | Checked | 72.5% | 73.5% | 1.0 pts | P +1.0 · K +0.5 | P $10K · K 29K ct |
| New Hampshire Senate | Checked | 88.5% | 89.5% | 1.0 pts | P +0.0 · K +0.5 | P $2K · K 19K ct |
| New Mexico Governor | Checked | 90.5% | 91.5% | 1.0 pts | P +0.0 · K +0.0 | P $50 · K 2K ct |
| South Carolina Senate | Checked | 84.5% | 85.5% | 1.0 pts | P +0.0 · K +0.0 | P $1K · K 158K ct |
| Vermont Governor | Checked | 74.5% | 75.5% | 1.0 pts | P +0.0 · K +0.0 | P $3K · K 3K ct |
| Michigan Governor | Checked | 93.9% | 93.0% | 0.9 pts | P +0.0 · K +0.2 | P $16 · K 4K ct |
| Alabama Governor | Auto-matched | 93.4% | 92.6% | 0.8 pts | P +1.0 · K +1.2 | P $12K · K 2K ct |
| Illinois Senate | Auto-matched | 98.3% | 97.5% | 0.8 pts | P +0.2 · K +0.7 | P $2K · K 47 ct |
| Kentucky Senate | Auto-matched | 96.9% | 96.1% | 0.8 pts | P +0.0 · K +0.2 | P $214 · K 314 ct |
| Minnesota Governor | Checked | 95.5% | 94.7% | 0.8 pts | P +0.0 · K +0.0 | P $6 · K 5K ct |
| Illinois Governor | Auto-matched | 97.7% | 97.0% | 0.7 pts | P −1.2 · K −0.3 | P $1K · K 5K ct |
| Rhode Island Governor | Auto-matched | 97.2% | 96.5% | 0.7 pts | P −0.1 · K −0.3 | P — · K 3K ct |
| Tennessee Governor | Auto-matched | 94.4% | 93.7% | 0.7 pts | P −0.2 · K +0.0 | P $381 · K 15K ct |
| Wyoming Senate | Auto-matched | 98.4% | 97.7% | 0.7 pts | P +0.0 · K +0.0 | P $1 · K — |
| Colorado Governor | Checked | 97.1% | 96.5% | 0.6 pts | P +0.0 · K −0.4 | P $5 · K 2K ct |
| Georgia Senate | Checked | 96.0% | 95.4% | 0.6 pts | P −0.3 · K +0.0 | P $3K · K 13K ct |
| New York Governor | Auto-matched | 95.7% | 95.1% | 0.6 pts | P −0.2 · K +0.0 | P $10 · K 16K ct |
| Oklahoma Senate | Auto-matched | 97.2% | 96.6% | 0.6 pts | P −0.1 · K +0.0 | P $1 · K — |
| South Dakota Senate | Auto-matched | 93.1% | 93.7% | 0.6 pts | P −0.1 · K −0.2 | P $67 · K 656 ct |
| Delaware Senate | Auto-matched | 98.5% | 98.0% | 0.5 pts | P −0.1 · K −0.1 | P $61 · K — |
| New Jersey Senate | Auto-matched | 97.4% | 96.9% | 0.5 pts | P −1.1 · K −1.6 | P $106 · K 17K ct |
| North Carolina Senate | Checked | 96.1% | 95.6% | 0.5 pts | P −0.2 · K +0.4 | P $2K · K 42K ct |
| Pennsylvania Governor | Checked | 97.9% | 98.4% | 0.5 pts | P +0.5 · K +1.3 | P $2K · K 22K ct |
| Wyoming Governor | Auto-matched | 97.8% | 97.3% | 0.5 pts | P +0.3 · K +0.1 | P — · K 614 ct |
| Oklahoma Governor | Auto-matched | 92.5% | 92.1% | 0.4 pts | P +0.0 · K +0.5 | P — · K 278 ct |
| South Carolina Governor | Auto-matched | 94.5% | 94.1% | 0.4 pts | P +0.0 · K −0.4 | P — · K 81 ct |
| South Dakota Governor | Auto-matched | 98.0% | 97.6% | 0.4 pts | P +1.2 · K +0.3 | P $53 · K — |
| Virginia Senate | Auto-matched | 97.8% | 97.4% | 0.4 pts | P −0.4 · K −0.4 | P $6 · K 291 ct |
| Colorado Senate | Auto-matched | 98.1% | 98.4% | 0.3 pts | P +0.2 · K +0.0 | P $6 · K 5 ct |
| Florida Senate | Checked | 90.5% | 90.8% | 0.3 pts | P +0.0 · K −0.2 | P $2K · K 11K ct |
| Nebraska Governor | Auto-matched | 89.5% | 89.8% | 0.3 pts | P +0.0 · K −0.7 | P — · K 385 ct |
| Arkansas Governor | Auto-matched | 96.7% | 96.5% | 0.2 pts | P +0.0 · K +0.0 | — |
| Maryland Governor | Auto-matched | 98.1% | 97.9% | 0.2 pts | P −0.2 · K +0.0 | P $5 · K 135 ct |
| Massachusetts Senate | Auto-matched | 98.4% | 98.2% | 0.2 pts | P −0.1 · K +0.0 | P $66 · K 8K ct |
| Oregon Senate | Auto-matched | 98.1% | 97.9% | 0.2 pts | P +0.0 · K +0.0 | P $13 · K — |
| West Virginia Senate | Auto-matched | 97.8% | 98.0% | 0.2 pts | P −0.7 · K +0.2 | P $258 · K 155 ct |
| Alabama Senate | Auto-matched | 97.3% | 97.2% | 0.1 pts | P −0.5 · K −0.2 | P $1 · K 128 ct |
| California Governor | Auto-matched | 96.1% | 96.0% | 0.1 pts | P +0.4 · K −0.2 | P $11K · K 257K ct |
| Idaho Governor | Auto-matched | 97.4% | 97.3% | 0.1 pts | P −0.4 · K −0.2 | — |
| New Hampshire Governor | Checked | 94.2% | 94.3% | 0.1 pts | P −0.1 · K +0.3 | — |
| Arkansas Senate | Auto-matched | 94.3% | 94.3% | 0.0 pts | P −0.1 · K +0.1 | P $11 · K 3K ct |
| Iowa Senate | Checked | 58.5% | 58.5% | 0.0 pts | P +0.0 · K +1.0 | P $2K · K 70K ct |
| Kansas Governor | Checked | 74.5% | 74.5% | 0.0 pts | P +0.0 · K +0.0 | P $14 · K 35 ct |
| Kansas Senate | Checked | 62.5% | 62.5% | 0.0 pts | P +0.5 · K +0.0 | P $6K · K 30K ct |
| New Mexico Senate | Auto-matched | 97.4% | 97.4% | 0.0 pts | P +0.0 · K +0.0 | P $1 · K 606 ct |
| Ohio Governor | Checked | 68.5% | 68.5% | 0.0 pts | P +1.0 · K −1.0 | P $2K · K 59K ct |
| Rhode Island Senate | Auto-matched | 98.1% | 98.1% | 0.0 pts | P +0.2 · K +0.2 | P $1 · K — |
| Texas Senate | Checked | 63.5% | 63.5% | 0.0 pts | P +1.0 · K +1.0 | P $113K · K 567K ct |
| Wisconsin Governor | Checked | 80.5% | 80.5% | 0.0 pts | P +0.0 · K +0.0 | P $2K · K 17K ct |
· Gap = absolute difference in percentage points. Only manually checked races have their own page. Missing values show “—”.
A few races are not directly comparable because the two platforms define the contract differently (for example, one lists an independent candidate as a separate option). They are left out of this ranking rather than shown as a gap.
Probabilities are the markets' own prices. For Kalshi we take the midpoint of the best bid and ask; when the spread is wider than 8¢ the market is thin, so we use the best bid instead. For Polymarket we use its own displayed price. A race is marked Checked only after a person has confirmed it is the same election, office, state, date and candidates on both platforms; otherwise it is Auto-matched. Missing data is shown as “—”, never as 0. The two platforms word their settlement rules differently; each race page shows both texts side by side. This page is information only and is not betting, investment or legal advice.
Sources: Polymarket public API · Kalshi public API · official election calendars. Full methodology → · Calculator →
PolyKal. “2026 Midterm Polymarket vs Kalshi Market Differences.” Data as of 2026-10-13 02:27 UTC. polykal.net/midterms/gaps/
Where Polymarket and Kalshi disagree most on 2026 midterm race probabilities, ranked by gap size.
| Race | Verified | P Polymarket | K Kalshi | Gap | 24H change | 24H volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan Senate | Checked | 70.5% | 67.5% | 3.0 pts | P +1.0 · K +0.0 | P $34K · K 108K ct |
| Nevada Governor | Checked | 54.5% | 51.5% | 3.0 pts | P +1.0 · K +0.0 | P $1K · K 4K ct |
| Texas Governor | Checked | 79.4% | 81.5% | 2.1 pts | P +0.1 · K +1.0 | P $5K · K 104K ct |
| Alaska Governor | Auto-matched | 78.5% | 76.5% | 2.0 pts | P +0.0 · K +0.0 | P $30 · K 1K ct |
| Alaska Senate | Auto-matched | 72.5% | 74.5% | 2.0 pts | P +0.0 · K +0.5 | P $2K · K 5K ct |
| Arizona Governor | Checked | 88.5% | 86.5% | 2.0 pts | P +0.0 · K +0.0 | P $13K · K 17K ct |
| Georgia Governor | Checked | 53.5% | 55.5% | 2.0 pts | P +0.0 · K +0.0 | P $1K · K 11K ct |
| Maine Senate | Checked | 59.5% | 57.5% | 2.0 pts | P +1.0 · K +1.0 | P $2K · K 93K ct |
| Ohio Senate | Checked | 61.5% | 59.5% | 2.0 pts | P +0.0 · K +0.0 | P $13K · K 53K ct |
| Oregon Governor | Checked | 76.5% | 74.5% | 2.0 pts | P −1.0 · K −1.0 | P $4K · K 9K ct |
| Louisiana Senate | Auto-matched | 92.5% | 94.1% | 1.6 pts | P +0.0 · K −0.6 | P $1 · K 421 ct |
| Iowa Governor | Checked | 88.0% | 89.5% | 1.5 pts | P +1.5 · K +2.0 | P $17K · K 27K ct |
| Mississippi Senate | Auto-matched | 93.5% | 92.0% | 1.5 pts | P +0.0 · K +0.1 | P $1K · K 3K ct |
| Connecticut Governor | Auto-matched | 96.7% | 95.3% | 1.4 pts | P +0.1 · K −0.3 | P $67 · K 3K ct |
| Tennessee Senate | Auto-matched | 93.9% | 92.6% | 1.3 pts | P −0.1 · K +0.1 | P $988 · K 22K ct |
| Montana Senate | Checked | 91.5% | 92.6% | 1.1 pts | P +0.0 · K −0.8 | P $416 · K 4K ct |
| Florida Governor | Checked | 78.5% | 77.5% | 1.0 pts | P +0.0 · K +0.0 | P $4K · K 22K ct |
| Hawaii Governor | Auto-matched | 99.4% | 98.4% | 1.0 pts | P +1.0 · K +0.3 | P $337 · K 27 ct |
| Idaho Senate | Checked | 95.3% | 94.3% | 1.0 pts | P +0.1 · K +0.2 | P $512 · K 9K ct |
| Massachusetts Governor | Auto-matched | 95.7% | 94.7% | 1.0 pts | P −0.1 · K −0.2 | P $914 · K 62K ct |
| Minnesota Senate | Checked | 87.5% | 86.5% | 1.0 pts | P +0.0 · K +0.0 | P $1K · K 110K ct |
| Nebraska Senate | Checked | 72.5% | 73.5% | 1.0 pts | P +1.0 · K +0.5 | P $10K · K 29K ct |
| New Hampshire Senate | Checked | 88.5% | 89.5% | 1.0 pts | P +0.0 · K +0.5 | P $2K · K 19K ct |
| New Mexico Governor | Checked | 90.5% | 91.5% | 1.0 pts | P +0.0 · K +0.0 | P $50 · K 2K ct |
| South Carolina Senate | Checked | 84.5% | 85.5% | 1.0 pts | P +0.0 · K +0.0 | P $1K · K 158K ct |
| Vermont Governor | Checked | 74.5% | 75.5% | 1.0 pts | P +0.0 · K +0.0 | P $3K · K 3K ct |
| Michigan Governor | Checked | 93.9% | 93.0% | 0.9 pts | P +0.0 · K +0.2 | P $16 · K 4K ct |
| Alabama Governor | Auto-matched | 93.4% | 92.6% | 0.8 pts | P +1.0 · K +1.2 | P $12K · K 2K ct |
| Illinois Senate | Auto-matched | 98.3% | 97.5% | 0.8 pts | P +0.2 · K +0.7 | P $2K · K 47 ct |
| Kentucky Senate | Auto-matched | 96.9% | 96.1% | 0.8 pts | P +0.0 · K +0.2 | P $214 · K 314 ct |
| Minnesota Governor | Checked | 95.5% | 94.7% | 0.8 pts | P +0.0 · K +0.0 | P $6 · K 5K ct |
| Illinois Governor | Auto-matched | 97.7% | 97.0% | 0.7 pts | P −1.2 · K −0.3 | P $1K · K 5K ct |
| Rhode Island Governor | Auto-matched | 97.2% | 96.5% | 0.7 pts | P −0.1 · K −0.3 | P — · K 3K ct |
| Tennessee Governor | Auto-matched | 94.4% | 93.7% | 0.7 pts | P −0.2 · K +0.0 | P $381 · K 15K ct |
| Wyoming Senate | Auto-matched | 98.4% | 97.7% | 0.7 pts | P +0.0 · K +0.0 | P $1 · K — |
| Colorado Governor | Checked | 97.1% | 96.5% | 0.6 pts | P +0.0 · K −0.4 | P $5 · K 2K ct |
| Georgia Senate | Checked | 96.0% | 95.4% | 0.6 pts | P −0.3 · K +0.0 | P $3K · K 13K ct |
| New York Governor | Auto-matched | 95.7% | 95.1% | 0.6 pts | P −0.2 · K +0.0 | P $10 · K 16K ct |
| Oklahoma Senate | Auto-matched | 97.2% | 96.6% | 0.6 pts | P −0.1 · K +0.0 | P $1 · K — |
| South Dakota Senate | Auto-matched | 93.1% | 93.7% | 0.6 pts | P −0.1 · K −0.2 | P $67 · K 656 ct |
| Delaware Senate | Auto-matched | 98.5% | 98.0% | 0.5 pts | P −0.1 · K −0.1 | P $61 · K — |
| New Jersey Senate | Auto-matched | 97.4% | 96.9% | 0.5 pts | P −1.1 · K −1.6 | P $106 · K 17K ct |
| North Carolina Senate | Checked | 96.1% | 95.6% | 0.5 pts | P −0.2 · K +0.4 | P $2K · K 42K ct |
| Pennsylvania Governor | Checked | 97.9% | 98.4% | 0.5 pts | P +0.5 · K +1.3 | P $2K · K 22K ct |
| Wyoming Governor | Auto-matched | 97.8% | 97.3% | 0.5 pts | P +0.3 · K +0.1 | P — · K 614 ct |
| Oklahoma Governor | Auto-matched | 92.5% | 92.1% | 0.4 pts | P +0.0 · K +0.5 | P — · K 278 ct |
| South Carolina Governor | Auto-matched | 94.5% | 94.1% | 0.4 pts | P +0.0 · K −0.4 | P — · K 81 ct |
| South Dakota Governor | Auto-matched | 98.0% | 97.6% | 0.4 pts | P +1.2 · K +0.3 | P $53 · K — |
| Virginia Senate | Auto-matched | 97.8% | 97.4% | 0.4 pts | P −0.4 · K −0.4 | P $6 · K 291 ct |
| Colorado Senate | Auto-matched | 98.1% | 98.4% | 0.3 pts | P +0.2 · K +0.0 | P $6 · K 5 ct |
| Florida Senate | Checked | 90.5% | 90.8% | 0.3 pts | P +0.0 · K −0.2 | P $2K · K 11K ct |
| Nebraska Governor | Auto-matched | 89.5% | 89.8% | 0.3 pts | P +0.0 · K −0.7 | P — · K 385 ct |
| Arkansas Governor | Auto-matched | 96.7% | 96.5% | 0.2 pts | P +0.0 · K +0.0 | — |
| Maryland Governor | Auto-matched | 98.1% | 97.9% | 0.2 pts | P −0.2 · K +0.0 | P $5 · K 135 ct |
| Massachusetts Senate | Auto-matched | 98.4% | 98.2% | 0.2 pts | P −0.1 · K +0.0 | P $66 · K 8K ct |
| Oregon Senate | Auto-matched | 98.1% | 97.9% | 0.2 pts | P +0.0 · K +0.0 | P $13 · K — |
| West Virginia Senate | Auto-matched | 97.8% | 98.0% | 0.2 pts | P −0.7 · K +0.2 | P $258 · K 155 ct |
| Alabama Senate | Auto-matched | 97.3% | 97.2% | 0.1 pts | P −0.5 · K −0.2 | P $1 · K 128 ct |
| California Governor | Auto-matched | 96.1% | 96.0% | 0.1 pts | P +0.4 · K −0.2 | P $11K · K 257K ct |
| Idaho Governor | Auto-matched | 97.4% | 97.3% | 0.1 pts | P −0.4 · K −0.2 | — |
| New Hampshire Governor | Checked | 94.2% | 94.3% | 0.1 pts | P −0.1 · K +0.3 | — |
| Arkansas Senate | Auto-matched | 94.3% | 94.3% | 0.0 pts | P −0.1 · K +0.1 | P $11 · K 3K ct |
| Iowa Senate | Checked | 58.5% | 58.5% | 0.0 pts | P +0.0 · K +1.0 | P $2K · K 70K ct |
| Kansas Governor | Checked | 74.5% | 74.5% | 0.0 pts | P +0.0 · K +0.0 | P $14 · K 35 ct |
| Kansas Senate | Checked | 62.5% | 62.5% | 0.0 pts | P +0.5 · K +0.0 | P $6K · K 30K ct |
| New Mexico Senate | Auto-matched | 97.4% | 97.4% | 0.0 pts | P +0.0 · K +0.0 | P $1 · K 606 ct |
| Ohio Governor | Checked | 68.5% | 68.5% | 0.0 pts | P +1.0 · K −1.0 | P $2K · K 59K ct |
| Rhode Island Senate | Auto-matched | 98.1% | 98.1% | 0.0 pts | P +0.2 · K +0.2 | P $1 · K — |
| Texas Senate | Checked | 63.5% | 63.5% | 0.0 pts | P +1.0 · K +1.0 | P $113K · K 567K ct |
| Wisconsin Governor | Checked | 80.5% | 80.5% | 0.0 pts | P +0.0 · K +0.0 | P $2K · K 17K ct |
· Gap = absolute difference in percentage points. Only manually checked races have their own page. Missing values show “—”.
A few races are not directly comparable because the two platforms define the contract differently (for example, one lists an independent candidate as a separate option). They are left out of this ranking rather than shown as a gap.
Probabilities are the markets' own prices. For Kalshi we take the midpoint of the best bid and ask; when the spread is wider than 8¢ the market is thin, so we use the best bid instead. For Polymarket we use its own displayed price. A race is marked Checked only after a person has confirmed it is the same election, office, state, date and candidates on both platforms; otherwise it is Auto-matched. Missing data is shown as “—”, never as 0. The two platforms word their settlement rules differently; each race page shows both texts side by side. This page is information only and is not betting, investment or legal advice.
Sources: Polymarket public API · Kalshi public API · official election calendars. Full methodology → · Calculator →
PolyKal. “2026 Midterm Polymarket vs Kalshi Market Differences.” Data as of 2026-10-13 02:27 UTC. polykal.net/midterms/gaps/