Compare Polymarket and Kalshi probabilities for the 2026 Texas Senate race, with current odds and 24h volume.
| Candidate | P Polymarket | K Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| James Talarico · D | 63.5% | 63.5% | 0.0 pts |
| Ken Paxton · R | 35.5% | 35.5% | 0.0 pts |
Gap = absolute difference in percentage points. A gap is only computed when the name matches on both platforms. Placeholder options are filtered out.
James Talarico — the leading candidate.
| Date (UTC) | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | 62.5% | 63.5% | 1.0 pts |
| 2026-10-13 | 63.5% | 63.5% | 0.0 pts |
24H range: Polymarket 62.5–63.5% · Kalshi 62.5–63.5% · Largest gap 1.0 pts on Oct 12
| Date (UTC) | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-06 | 65.5% | 67.5% | 2.0 pts |
| 2026-10-07 | 65.5% | 66.5% | 1.0 pts |
| 2026-10-08 | 63.5% | 65.5% | 2.0 pts |
| 2026-10-09 | 62.5% | 62.5% | 0.0 pts |
| 2026-10-10 | 64.5% | 62.5% | 2.0 pts |
| 2026-10-11 | 62.5% | 61.5% | 1.0 pts |
| 2026-10-12 | 62.5% | 63.5% | 1.0 pts |
| 2026-10-13 | 63.5% | 63.5% | 0.0 pts |
7D range: Polymarket 60.5–67.5% · Kalshi 59.5–67.5% · Largest gap 4.0 pts on Oct 11
| Date (UTC) | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 | 60.5% | 59.5% | 1.0 pts |
| 2026-09-29 | 61.5% | 59.5% | 2.0 pts |
| 2026-09-30 | 64.5% | 62.5% | 2.0 pts |
| 2026-10-01 | 61.5% | 64.5% | 3.0 pts |
| 2026-10-02 | 60.5% | 63.5% | 3.0 pts |
| 2026-10-03 | 64.5% | 65.5% | 1.0 pts |
| 2026-10-04 | 63.5% | 64.0% | 0.5 pts |
| 2026-10-05 | 64.5% | 65.5% | 1.0 pts |
| 2026-10-06 | 65.5% | 67.5% | 2.0 pts |
| 2026-10-07 | 65.5% | 66.5% | 1.0 pts |
| 2026-10-08 | 63.5% | 65.5% | 2.0 pts |
| 2026-10-09 | 62.5% | 62.5% | 0.0 pts |
| 2026-10-10 | 64.5% | 62.5% | 2.0 pts |
| 2026-10-11 | 62.5% | 61.5% | 1.0 pts |
| 2026-10-12 | 62.5% | 63.5% | 1.0 pts |
| 2026-10-13 | 63.5% | 63.5% | 0.0 pts |
Full range: Polymarket 60.5–67.5% · Kalshi 59.5–67.5% · Largest gap 4.0 pts on Oct 03
Both contracts point to the 2026 election result, but the wording differs. Shown side by side, not merged.
Settles on the election result: once the Associated Press, Fox News and NBC all call the same winner; otherwise on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Settles on the party representative being sworn in or inaugurated after the 2026 election; may be determined early once a consensus of media organizations projects the winner.
If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Texas for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. This market will close early following the swearing in of the Senator for the seat in question.
Rule text copied from each platform's public market data on 2026-10-03. Election day is Nov 3, 2026; platform close dates are placeholders and are not shown.
Probabilities are the markets' own prices. For Kalshi we take the midpoint of the best bid and ask; when the spread is wider than 8¢ the market is thin, so we use the best bid instead. For Polymarket we use its own displayed price. A race is marked Checked only after a person has confirmed it is the same election, office, state, date and candidates on both platforms; otherwise it is Auto-matched. Missing data is shown as “—”, never as 0. The two platforms word their settlement rules differently; each race page shows both texts side by side. This page is information only and is not betting, investment or legal advice.
Sources: Polymarket public API · Kalshi public API · official election calendars. Full methodology → · Calculator →
PolyKal. “Texas Senate Election 2026: Polymarket vs Kalshi.” Data as of 2026-10-13 02:26 UTC. polykal.net/midterms/senate/texas/
Polymarket volume is in US dollars; Kalshi volume is in contracts.
Compare Polymarket and Kalshi probabilities for the 2026 Texas Senate race, with current odds and 24h volume.
| Candidate | P Polymarket | K Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| James Talarico · D | 63.5% | 63.5% | 0.0 pts |
| Ken Paxton · R | 35.5% | 35.5% | 0.0 pts |
Gap = absolute difference in percentage points. A gap is only computed when the name matches on both platforms. Placeholder options are filtered out.
James Talarico — the leading candidate.
| Date (UTC) | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | 62.5% | 63.5% | 1.0 pts |
| 2026-10-13 | 63.5% | 63.5% | 0.0 pts |
24H range: Polymarket 62.5–63.5% · Kalshi 62.5–63.5% · Largest gap 1.0 pts on Oct 12
| Date (UTC) | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-06 | 65.5% | 67.5% | 2.0 pts |
| 2026-10-07 | 65.5% | 66.5% | 1.0 pts |
| 2026-10-08 | 63.5% | 65.5% | 2.0 pts |
| 2026-10-09 | 62.5% | 62.5% | 0.0 pts |
| 2026-10-10 | 64.5% | 62.5% | 2.0 pts |
| 2026-10-11 | 62.5% | 61.5% | 1.0 pts |
| 2026-10-12 | 62.5% | 63.5% | 1.0 pts |
| 2026-10-13 | 63.5% | 63.5% | 0.0 pts |
7D range: Polymarket 60.5–67.5% · Kalshi 59.5–67.5% · Largest gap 4.0 pts on Oct 11
| Date (UTC) | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 | 60.5% | 59.5% | 1.0 pts |
| 2026-09-29 | 61.5% | 59.5% | 2.0 pts |
| 2026-09-30 | 64.5% | 62.5% | 2.0 pts |
| 2026-10-01 | 61.5% | 64.5% | 3.0 pts |
| 2026-10-02 | 60.5% | 63.5% | 3.0 pts |
| 2026-10-03 | 64.5% | 65.5% | 1.0 pts |
| 2026-10-04 | 63.5% | 64.0% | 0.5 pts |
| 2026-10-05 | 64.5% | 65.5% | 1.0 pts |
| 2026-10-06 | 65.5% | 67.5% | 2.0 pts |
| 2026-10-07 | 65.5% | 66.5% | 1.0 pts |
| 2026-10-08 | 63.5% | 65.5% | 2.0 pts |
| 2026-10-09 | 62.5% | 62.5% | 0.0 pts |
| 2026-10-10 | 64.5% | 62.5% | 2.0 pts |
| 2026-10-11 | 62.5% | 61.5% | 1.0 pts |
| 2026-10-12 | 62.5% | 63.5% | 1.0 pts |
| 2026-10-13 | 63.5% | 63.5% | 0.0 pts |
Full range: Polymarket 60.5–67.5% · Kalshi 59.5–67.5% · Largest gap 4.0 pts on Oct 03
Both contracts point to the 2026 election result, but the wording differs. Shown side by side, not merged.
Settles on the election result: once the Associated Press, Fox News and NBC all call the same winner; otherwise on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Settles on the party representative being sworn in or inaugurated after the 2026 election; may be determined early once a consensus of media organizations projects the winner.
If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Texas for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. This market will close early following the swearing in of the Senator for the seat in question.
Rule text copied from each platform's public market data on 2026-10-03. Election day is Nov 3, 2026; platform close dates are placeholders and are not shown.
Probabilities are the markets' own prices. For Kalshi we take the midpoint of the best bid and ask; when the spread is wider than 8¢ the market is thin, so we use the best bid instead. For Polymarket we use its own displayed price. A race is marked Checked only after a person has confirmed it is the same election, office, state, date and candidates on both platforms; otherwise it is Auto-matched. Missing data is shown as “—”, never as 0. The two platforms word their settlement rules differently; each race page shows both texts side by side. This page is information only and is not betting, investment or legal advice.
Sources: Polymarket public API · Kalshi public API · official election calendars. Full methodology → · Calculator →
PolyKal. “Texas Senate Election 2026: Polymarket vs Kalshi.” Data as of 2026-10-13 02:26 UTC. polykal.net/midterms/senate/texas/
Polymarket volume is in US dollars; Kalshi volume is in contracts.