How Polymarket and Kalshi price the October 2026 Fed rate decision: prices and after-fee costs side by side. Data-only, not trading advice.
PolyKal Research · Published 2026-09-23 · Data as of 2026-10-12 22:28 ET · Independent research, not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Not trading advice.
As of 2026-10-12, Polymarket's most-likely October outcome is “No change” at 80%, down 3.0 pt on the day.
After fees, Kalshi is cheaper on “25 bps increase”.
The market's read right now is “No change” at 80%; which platform is cheaper after fees depends on the outcome (see the table above). To follow the October 28 decision, the CPI and jobs releases are commonly watched. This page helps you read the board and compare costs — it does not tell you which side to take.
Kalshi price is the best Yes bid: on low-liquidity outcomes the order book is one-sided (no near-the-money asks), so a mid-price would be meaningless. Outcomes with no Yes bid show —.
Per-contract cost to buy Yes, taker fees from Fee schedule. Try your own size in the fee calculator.
Kalshi is cheaper on “25 bps increase”. Work any size in the fee calculator; dated rates on the fee schedule.
Official public order books for prices on both platforms. All times ET.
After-fee cost uses current, dated taker rates from the fee schedule. Where an outcome trades on only one platform we show “Not comparable” rather than a gap.
PolyKal Research. “Fed October 2026 rate decision: how Polymarket and Kalshi compare.” PolyKal Research, September 23, 2026. https://polykal.net/topics/fed-october-2026/ (accessed the date you view this page).
How Polymarket and Kalshi price the October 2026 Fed rate decision: prices and after-fee costs side by side. Data-only, not trading advice.
PolyKal Research · Published 2026-09-23 · Data as of 2026-10-12 22:28 ET · Independent research, not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Not trading advice.
As of 2026-10-12, Polymarket's most-likely October outcome is “No change” at 80%, down 3.0 pt on the day.
After fees, Kalshi is cheaper on “25 bps increase”.
The market's read right now is “No change” at 80%; which platform is cheaper after fees depends on the outcome (see the table above). To follow the October 28 decision, the CPI and jobs releases are commonly watched. This page helps you read the board and compare costs — it does not tell you which side to take.
Kalshi price is the best Yes bid: on low-liquidity outcomes the order book is one-sided (no near-the-money asks), so a mid-price would be meaningless. Outcomes with no Yes bid show —.
Per-contract cost to buy Yes, taker fees from Fee schedule. Try your own size in the fee calculator.
Kalshi is cheaper on “25 bps increase”. Work any size in the fee calculator; dated rates on the fee schedule.
Official public order books for prices on both platforms. All times ET.
After-fee cost uses current, dated taker rates from the fee schedule. Where an outcome trades on only one platform we show “Not comparable” rather than a gap.
PolyKal Research. “Fed October 2026 rate decision: how Polymarket and Kalshi compare.” PolyKal Research, September 23, 2026. https://polykal.net/topics/fed-october-2026/ (accessed the date you view this page).