How Polymarket and Kalshi price control of the U.S. House in 2026: prices, fees and settlement rules side by side. Data-only, not trading advice.
PolyKal Research · Published 2026-10-05 · Data as of 2026-10-12 22:28 ET · Independent research, not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Not trading advice.
As of 2026-10-12, Polymarket's most-likely House control outcome is “Democratic Party” at 90.5%.
After fees, Polymarket is cheaper on “Republican Party”.
The market's read right now is “Democratic Party” at 90.5%; which platform is cheaper after fees depends on the outcome (see the table above). To follow which party controls the House on November 3, generic-ballot polling and the overall House popular vote are commonly watched. This page helps you read the board and compare costs — it does not tell you which side to take.
Prices use the same method as the Midterms pages: Polymarket shows the market's displayed Yes price. Kalshi shows the midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask when they are within 8¢ of each other, and otherwise the best Yes bid. Outcomes with no Yes bid show —.
Per-contract cost to buy Yes, taker fees from Fee schedule. Try your own size in the fee calculator.
Polymarket is cheaper on “Republican Party” after fees. Work any size in the fee calculator; dated rates on the fee schedule.
Both markets ask which party controls the U.S. House after the 2026 midterms, but the two platforms word their rules differently. The rule text below is copied from each platform and shown in the original English.
Settles on the party that wins control of the House in the 2026 election — a majority of the chamber's voting seats or, if no party wins a majority, the party of the first elected Speaker.
Official rule text, quoted verbatim from the platform:
This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States House of Representatives in the 2026 United States midterm election. A party wins control of the United States House of Representatives if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first elected Speaker of the House of the Congress that convenes after the 2026 midterm election is affiliated. The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chamber. All House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress are included. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Settles on whether the named party has won control of the House in 2026; its rules allow early determination on a consensus of media calls and otherwise look to the party of the Speaker of the House.
Official rule text, quoted verbatim from the platform:
Democratic Party: If the Democratic Party has won control of the House in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Republican Party: If the Republican Party has won control of the House in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. This market may be determined early based on a consensus of media calls projecting control of the U.S. House. See full rules for details. Otherwise, victory will be determined by the party identification of the Speaker of the House on February 1, 2027.
Rule text checked 2026-10-05 against each platform's own page. Shown in the original English.
It is a market on one question: which party will control the U.S. House of Representatives after the 2026 midterm elections. Polymarket and Kalshi each list a Democratic Party and a Republican Party contract, and each contract's price is read as that outcome's probability. PolyKal shows both platforms side by side.
They word it differently. Polymarket settles on the party that wins control of the House in the election, using a majority of voting seats or, if there is no majority, the party of the first elected Speaker. Kalshi settles on whether the party has won control of the House in 2026, may determine it early on a consensus of media calls, and otherwise looks to the party of the Speaker. The settlement rules block above shows each platform's original text.
Each platform has its own traders, order book, fees and rule wording, and prices are captured at slightly different moments. PolyKal also uses a stated price basis: Polymarket's displayed price, and for Kalshi the midpoint of the bid and ask when the spread is 8 cents or less (otherwise the highest bid). Small differences are normal and are shown as percentage points, not as a signal.
The data on this page is refreshed about every 15 minutes from each platform's public data, and the "Data as of" time on the page shows when the figures were captured. It is a snapshot, not a live feed.
No to both. PolyKal is a free, read-only research site: there are no accounts and no trading, and nothing here is advice. It does not report election results; it only shows what the two markets were pricing, and after the polls close this page stops updating and shows the last pre-close price.
Official public order books for prices on both platforms. All times ET.
After-fee cost uses current, dated taker rates from the fee schedule. Where an outcome trades on only one platform we show “Not comparable” rather than a gap.
PolyKal Research. “2026 House control: how Polymarket and Kalshi compare.” PolyKal Research, October 5, 2026. https://polykal.net/topics/house-control-2026/ (accessed the date you view this page).
How Polymarket and Kalshi price control of the U.S. House in 2026: prices, fees and settlement rules side by side. Data-only, not trading advice.
PolyKal Research · Published 2026-10-05 · Data as of 2026-10-12 22:28 ET · Independent research, not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Not trading advice.
As of 2026-10-12, Polymarket's most-likely House control outcome is “Democratic Party” at 90.5%.
After fees, Polymarket is cheaper on “Republican Party”.
The market's read right now is “Democratic Party” at 90.5%; which platform is cheaper after fees depends on the outcome (see the table above). To follow which party controls the House on November 3, generic-ballot polling and the overall House popular vote are commonly watched. This page helps you read the board and compare costs — it does not tell you which side to take.
Prices use the same method as the Midterms pages: Polymarket shows the market's displayed Yes price. Kalshi shows the midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask when they are within 8¢ of each other, and otherwise the best Yes bid. Outcomes with no Yes bid show —.
Per-contract cost to buy Yes, taker fees from Fee schedule. Try your own size in the fee calculator.
Polymarket is cheaper on “Republican Party” after fees. Work any size in the fee calculator; dated rates on the fee schedule.
Both markets ask which party controls the U.S. House after the 2026 midterms, but the two platforms word their rules differently. The rule text below is copied from each platform and shown in the original English.
Settles on the party that wins control of the House in the 2026 election — a majority of the chamber's voting seats or, if no party wins a majority, the party of the first elected Speaker.
Official rule text, quoted verbatim from the platform:
This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States House of Representatives in the 2026 United States midterm election. A party wins control of the United States House of Representatives if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first elected Speaker of the House of the Congress that convenes after the 2026 midterm election is affiliated. The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chamber. All House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress are included. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Settles on whether the named party has won control of the House in 2026; its rules allow early determination on a consensus of media calls and otherwise look to the party of the Speaker of the House.
Official rule text, quoted verbatim from the platform:
Democratic Party: If the Democratic Party has won control of the House in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Republican Party: If the Republican Party has won control of the House in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. This market may be determined early based on a consensus of media calls projecting control of the U.S. House. See full rules for details. Otherwise, victory will be determined by the party identification of the Speaker of the House on February 1, 2027.
Rule text checked 2026-10-05 against each platform's own page. Shown in the original English.
It is a market on one question: which party will control the U.S. House of Representatives after the 2026 midterm elections. Polymarket and Kalshi each list a Democratic Party and a Republican Party contract, and each contract's price is read as that outcome's probability. PolyKal shows both platforms side by side.
They word it differently. Polymarket settles on the party that wins control of the House in the election, using a majority of voting seats or, if there is no majority, the party of the first elected Speaker. Kalshi settles on whether the party has won control of the House in 2026, may determine it early on a consensus of media calls, and otherwise looks to the party of the Speaker. The settlement rules block above shows each platform's original text.
Each platform has its own traders, order book, fees and rule wording, and prices are captured at slightly different moments. PolyKal also uses a stated price basis: Polymarket's displayed price, and for Kalshi the midpoint of the bid and ask when the spread is 8 cents or less (otherwise the highest bid). Small differences are normal and are shown as percentage points, not as a signal.
The data on this page is refreshed about every 15 minutes from each platform's public data, and the "Data as of" time on the page shows when the figures were captured. It is a snapshot, not a live feed.
No to both. PolyKal is a free, read-only research site: there are no accounts and no trading, and nothing here is advice. It does not report election results; it only shows what the two markets were pricing, and after the polls close this page stops updating and shows the last pre-close price.
Official public order books for prices on both platforms. All times ET.
After-fee cost uses current, dated taker rates from the fee schedule. Where an outcome trades on only one platform we show “Not comparable” rather than a gap.
PolyKal Research. “2026 House control: how Polymarket and Kalshi compare.” PolyKal Research, October 5, 2026. https://polykal.net/topics/house-control-2026/ (accessed the date you view this page).